Standard Liège II 1-2 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Standard Liège II at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Standard Liège II vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Deinze travel to Stade Maurice Dufrasne to take on Standard Liège II. The game is scheduled for Saturday 26 November 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Standard Liège II have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Standard Liège II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Standard Liège II have gone 1W 3D 2L this season (6 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Deinze — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Standard Liège II 1.00 PPG, Deinze 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Standard Liège II have won 0, Deinze 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 1–4 with Deinze winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Standard Liège II in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Deinze in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Standard Liège II 64% versus Deinze 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Standard Liège II 64% | Deinze 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Standard Liège II 1.21 xG and Deinze 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Standard Liège II attack 0.855 / defence 1.404 | Deinze attack 0.636 / defence 0.913. League average goals — home 1.544 / away 1.345. Data: 14 Standard Liège II games / 42 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Standard Liège II 36% | Draw 28% | Deinze 36%. Fair-value odds: Standard Liège II 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Deinze 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Standard Liège II 100% | Deinze 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Standard Liège II vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade Maurice Dufrasne • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Standard Liège II 36% | Draw 28% | Deinze 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Standard Liège II 1.21 / Deinze 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Standard Liège II attack 0.855 / def 1.404 | Deinze attack 0.636 / def 0.913 | league avg home 1.544 / away 1.345 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Standard Liège II xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Deinze xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Standard Liège II vs Deinze kick off?
Standard Liège II vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 November 2022 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What was the final score in Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Standard Liège II 1 - 2 Deinze.
Where is Standard Liège II vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Stade Maurice Dufrasne.
What competition is Standard Liège II vs Deinze part of?
Standard Liège II vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Standard Liège II a 36% chance of winning, Deinze a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Standard Liège II and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will Standard Liège II vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Deinze?
Record (1 meetings): Standard Liège II 0W | Draws 0 | Deinze 1W.
What form are Standard Liège II and Deinze in?
Standard Liège II (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Deinze (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Standard Liège II's attack rating (0.85) and Deinze's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Deinze's attack versus Standard Liège II's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liège II Win
36%
2.78
28%
3.52
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Standard Liège II xG
Total xG
2.41
1.20
Deinze xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
11%
9.26
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Standard Liège II and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Standard Liège II and 1.20 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Standard Liège II vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Standard Liège II come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 4D 6L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Standard Liège II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (5W 3D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Standard Liège II on 1.14 PPG, Deinze on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Standard Liège II's home form reads 1W 3D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Deinze have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Deinze's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Standard Liège II are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.21 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liège II have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Standard Liège II
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Standard Liège II and Deinze in coming into this match?
Standard Liège II have gone 4W 4D 6L in their last 14 games (1.14 PPG), while Deinze have gone 5W 3D 6L in their last 14 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Standard Liège II at home or Deinze away?
Standard Liège II's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Standard Liège II at home: 1.00 PPG; Deinze away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 December 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Apr 2023, when Deinze won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Standard Liège II's record when hosting Deinze specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Standard Liège II
0
Draws
5
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Standard Liège II and Deinze?
From 6 meetings on record, Standard Liège II have won 1, Deinze have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Standard Liège II and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2023, when Deinze 2-1 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Standard Liège II and Deinze?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Standard Liège II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Standard Liège II at 100%, Deinze at 33%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 83% (Standard Liège II) and 33% (Deinze). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Deinze in 33%; Deinze in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Standard Liège II home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Standard Liège II play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Standard Liège II's games and 33% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Standard Liège II vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Standard Liège II's matches and 33% of Deinze's.
Do Standard Liège II and Deinze tend to score early?
Standard Liège II have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Deinze in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Deinze defy the odds to beat Standard Liège II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze beat Standard Liège II 1-2 at Stade Maurice Dufrasne, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Standard Liège II 1.21 xG and Deinze 1.20 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Standard Liège II attack 0.85 / defence 1.40 against Deinze attack 0.64 / defence 0.91, drawn from 14/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Standard Liège II 36% | Draw 28% | Deinze 36%, with Standard Liège II to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Deinze win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Standard Liège II 64%, Deinze 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Standard Liège II's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Deinze's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Standard Liège II 1.14 PPG, Deinze 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Deinze win broke the near-deadlock. Deinze (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.