SK Beveren 3-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 4 as SK Beveren welcome KRC Genk II to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SK Beveren have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Freethielstadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SK Beveren are significantly better at Freethielstadion than their overall form suggests.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. KRC Genk II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (SK Beveren) versus 1.40 (KRC Genk II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for KRC Genk II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with SK Beveren winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SK Beveren 52% and KRC Genk II 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 61% | KRC Genk II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.46 xG and KRC Genk II 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.109 / defence 0.910 | KRC Genk II attack 0.998 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.485. Data: 33 SK Beveren games / 33 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 40% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 35%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | KRC Genk II 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SK Beveren are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 70% | KRC Genk II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 40% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG SK Beveren 1.46 / KRC Genk II 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.109 / def 0.910 | KRC Genk II attack 0.998 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: SK Beveren (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.35
KRC Genk II xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kick off?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren 3 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II part of?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 40% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making SK Beveren the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SK Beveren and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
Record (4 meetings): SK Beveren 2W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-D. KRC Genk II (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SK Beveren Win
40%
2.50
25%
3.97
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
2.81
1.35
KRC Genk II xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
10%
9.64
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.35 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 14W 8D 11L from 33 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SK Beveren, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 12W 7D 14L across 33 games — 1.30 PPG, with D-L-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for KRC Genk II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SK Beveren on 1.52 PPG, KRC Genk II on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 8W 3D 5L from 16 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.61 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 73%.
Last 33 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Early Season
KRC Genk II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 14W 8D 11L in their last 33 games (1.52 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 12W 7D 14L in their last 33 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or KRC Genk II away?
SK Beveren's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 1.69 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.19 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SK Beveren
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 5, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SK Beveren at 62%, KRC Genk II at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for SK Beveren and 69% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SK Beveren's games and 75% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of SK Beveren's matches and 69% of KRC Genk II's.
Do SK Beveren and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 94% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SK Beveren edge out KRC Genk II 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat KRC Genk II 3-2 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.46 xG and KRC Genk II 1.35 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. SK Beveren beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.11 / defence 0.91 against KRC Genk II attack 1.00 / defence 0.97, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 40% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 35%, with SK Beveren to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 61%, KRC Genk II 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SK Beveren 1.52 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SK Beveren win broke the near-deadlock. SK Beveren (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.