SK Beveren 2-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KRC Genk II at 40%, yet in-form SK Beveren provide a compelling counter-argument — this SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as SK Beveren welcome KRC Genk II to Freethielstadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, SK Beveren have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for SK Beveren, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SK Beveren's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Freethielstadion this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
KRC Genk II — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
SK Beveren carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SK Beveren register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, KRC Genk II in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for SK Beveren, 1 for KRC Genk II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Aug 2023, ended 0–1 with KRC Genk II winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SK Beveren in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
KRC Genk II in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 53% versus KRC Genk II 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 66% | KRC Genk II 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.80 xG and KRC Genk II 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 1.281 / defence 1.066 | KRC Genk II attack 1.160 / defence 1.249. League average goals — home 1.125 / away 1.477. SK Beveren carry an above-average attack strength of 1.281 — their λ of 1.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.249 — this is suppressing SK Beveren's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 SK Beveren games / 37 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SK Beveren 39% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 40%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.56 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.63. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.63 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, KRC Genk II are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form SK Beveren (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on KRC Genk II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.63 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: SK Beveren 60% | KRC Genk II 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Freethielstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SK Beveren 39% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 70% | xG SK Beveren 1.80 / KRC Genk II 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: SK Beveren attack 1.281 / def 1.066 | KRC Genk II attack 1.160 / def 1.249 | league avg home 1.125 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
SK Beveren xG
Expected Goals
1.83
KRC Genk II xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kick off?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Freethielstadion.
What was the final score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren 2 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Freethielstadion.
What competition is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II part of?
SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives SK Beveren a 39% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 40% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both SK Beveren and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
Record (3 meetings): SK Beveren 1W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in?
SK Beveren (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SK Beveren's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus SK Beveren's defence, projects 1.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.0%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
39%
2.60
22%
4.58
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
SK Beveren xG
Total xG
3.63
1.83
KRC Genk II xG
2.60
39%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.34
Clean Sheet
16%
6.22
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
6%
16.14
7%
15.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.9%.
How many goals are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for SK Beveren and 1.83 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.63.
How confident is the prediction model for SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SK Beveren's recent record stands at 26W 13D 8L from 47 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SK Beveren is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 10W 11D 26L across 47 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SK Beveren by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SK Beveren have managed 16W 4D 3L from 23 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 6W 5D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SK Beveren come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SK Beveren are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.26 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 62%.
Defensively: SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SK Beveren
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SK Beveren and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
SK Beveren have gone 26W 13D 8L in their last 47 games (1.94 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 10W 11D 26L in their last 47 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SK Beveren at home or KRC Genk II away?
SK Beveren's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SK Beveren at home: 2.26 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.00 PPG.
Have SK Beveren or KRC Genk II been keeping clean sheets recently?
SK Beveren have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, KRC Genk II in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 17 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: SK Beveren have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when SK Beveren won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SK Beveren's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
SK Beveren
2
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, SK Beveren have won 5, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SK Beveren and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 17 December 2025, when KRC Genk II 1-2 SK Beveren.
Who has won more matches between SK Beveren and KRC Genk II?
SK Beveren have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SK Beveren are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SK Beveren 61%, KRC Genk II 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for SK Beveren and 61% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SK Beveren keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SK Beveren home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SK Beveren play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of SK Beveren's games and 65% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SK Beveren vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of SK Beveren's matches and 61% of KRC Genk II's.
Do SK Beveren and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
SK Beveren have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SK Beveren defy the odds to beat KRC Genk II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SK Beveren beat KRC Genk II 2-1 at Freethielstadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Beveren 1.80 xG and KRC Genk II 1.83 xG, a combined 3.63. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. KRC Genk II landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Beveren attack 1.28 / defence 1.07 against KRC Genk II attack 1.16 / defence 1.25, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SK Beveren 39% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 40%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual SK Beveren win had been the model's second-ranked read at 39%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Beveren 66%, KRC Genk II 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SK Beveren's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SK Beveren arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.