SK Beveren 4-0 Francs Borains – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SK Beveren at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SK Beveren face Francs Borains.

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Match Analysis

SK Beveren host Francs Borains at Freethielstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.

Form Guide

SK Beveren — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, SK Beveren have posted 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SK Beveren are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Francs Borains stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Francs Borains's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SK Beveren 1.00 PPG, Francs Borains 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SK Beveren's games and 80% of Francs Borains's (from SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Francs Borains's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SK Beveren have won 1, Francs Borains 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 26 Jan 2024, ended SK Beveren 0–3 Francs Borains — a Francs Borains win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

SK Beveren in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Francs Borains in-play and half-time data (last 40 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Beveren 50% versus Francs Borains 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Beveren 55% | Francs Borains 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Beveren 1.61 xG and Francs Borains 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Beveren attack 0.895 / defence 0.922 | Francs Borains attack 0.955 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.408 / away 1.349. Francs Borains's defence rating of 1.276 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SK Beveren's projected output up. Data: built from SK Beveren's last 40 games and Francs Borains's last 40.

Result probabilities: SK Beveren 47% | Draw 25% | Francs Borains 28%. Fair-value odds: SK Beveren 2.12 | Draw 4.05 | Francs Borains 3.54. SK Beveren hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SK Beveren at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SK Beveren offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SK Beveren's last 10 home games and Francs Borains's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SK Beveren 60% (last 10 home games) | Francs Borains 80% (last 10 away games).

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