RWDM 1-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deinze at 40%, yet in-form RWDM provide a compelling counter-argument — this RWDM vs Deinze fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edmond Machtens-Stadion plays host to RWDM versus Deinze in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 13 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
RWDM's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for RWDM, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RWDM's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Edmond Machtens-Stadion this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Edmond Machtens-Stadion this season.
Deinze (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, Deinze have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. RWDM's 2.30 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Deinze's 1.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — RWDM have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Deinze in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: RWDM 1W, Deinze 0W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
RWDM half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Deinze half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 26% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RWDM 58% and Deinze 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (RWDM 53% | Deinze 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RWDM 1.35 xG and Deinze 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RWDM attack 1.021 / defence 1.101 | Deinze attack 0.942 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.054 / away 1.437. Deinze bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing RWDM's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 RWDM games / 19 Deinze games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RWDM 34% | Draw 26% | Deinze 40%. Fair-value odds: RWDM 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Deinze 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form RWDM (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Deinze if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: RWDM 60% | Deinze 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RWDM vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Edmond Machtens-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RWDM 34% | Draw 26% | Deinze 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG RWDM 1.35 / Deinze 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: RWDM attack 1.021 / def 1.101 | Deinze attack 0.942 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.054 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Deinze (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
RWDM xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Deinze xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RWDM vs Deinze kick off?
RWDM vs Deinze kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 13 February 2022 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What was the final score in RWDM vs Deinze?
RWDM 1 - 0 Deinze.
Where is RWDM vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Edmond Machtens-Stadion.
What competition is RWDM vs Deinze part of?
RWDM vs Deinze is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RWDM vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives RWDM a 34% chance of winning, Deinze a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in RWDM vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both RWDM and Deinze will score (BTTS).
Will RWDM vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Deinze?
Record (2 meetings): RWDM 1W | Draws 1 | Deinze 0W.
What form are RWDM and Deinze in?
RWDM (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Deinze (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates RWDM's attack at 1.02x the league average against Deinze's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (0.94x) against RWDM's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
34%
2.94
26%
3.89
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
RWDM xG
Total xG
2.84
1.49
Deinze xG
2.94
34%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
10%
9.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 8.7 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.7 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RWDM vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are RWDM and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for RWDM and 1.49 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for RWDM vs Deinze?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
RWDM's recent record stands at 9W 5D 5L from 19 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for RWDM is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Deinze, meanwhile, have gone 6W 10D 3L across 19 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for RWDM against 1.47 for Deinze. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, RWDM have managed 3W 3D 4L from 10 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.68 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Deinze's away record stands at 2W 6D 2L across 10 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
RWDM are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 1.74 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze in 74%.
Defensively: RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RWDM
Blended
Deinze
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RWDM and Deinze in coming into this match?
RWDM have gone 9W 5D 5L in their last 19 games (1.68 PPG), while Deinze have gone 6W 10D 3L in their last 19 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RWDM at home or Deinze away?
RWDM's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RWDM at home: 1.20 PPG; Deinze away: 1.20 PPG.
Have RWDM or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
RWDM have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Deinze in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 October 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
RWDM go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Deinze won 3-0 on 3 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, RWDM have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Deinze — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
RWDM
1
Draws
1
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RWDM and Deinze?
From 7 meetings on record, RWDM have won 5, Deinze have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RWDM and Deinze last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2024, when RWDM 3-2 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between RWDM and Deinze?
RWDM have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
RWDM are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 60% for RWDM, 70% for Deinze — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for RWDM and 60% for Deinze. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RWDM home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RWDM play Deinze?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of RWDM's games and 70% of Deinze's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RWDM vs Deinze usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of RWDM's matches and 60% of Deinze's.
Do RWDM and Deinze tend to score early?
RWDM have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Deinze in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as RWDM defy the odds to beat Deinze 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RWDM beat Deinze 1-0 at Edmond Machtens-Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RWDM 1.35 xG and Deinze 1.49 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Deinze landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RWDM attack 1.02 / defence 1.10 against Deinze attack 0.94 / defence 1.26, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RWDM 34% | Draw 26% | Deinze 40%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual RWDM win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RWDM 53%, Deinze 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RWDM's trading profile (19 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Deinze's trading profile (19 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RWDM 1.68 PPG, Deinze 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RWDM win broke the near-deadlock. RWDM (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.