RSC Anderlecht II 2-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates RSC Anderlecht II at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Challenger Pro League clash, Regular Season - 26 as RSC Anderlecht II welcome KRC Genk II to Lotto Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 February 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
RSC Anderlecht II — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for RSC Anderlecht II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RSC Anderlecht II's home record at Lotto Park: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, KRC Genk II stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (RSC Anderlecht II) versus 1.10 (KRC Genk II). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for RSC Anderlecht II, 4 for KRC Genk II and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2025, ended 2–3 with KRC Genk II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
RSC Anderlecht II trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
KRC Genk II trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — RSC Anderlecht II 65% and KRC Genk II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (RSC Anderlecht II 64% | KRC Genk II 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RSC Anderlecht II 1.92 xG and KRC Genk II 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.009 / defence 1.161 | KRC Genk II attack 1.112 / defence 1.443. League average goals — home 1.316 / away 1.295. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.443 — this is suppressing RSC Anderlecht II's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 RSC Anderlecht II games / 52 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 44% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 34%. Fair-value odds: RSC Anderlecht II 2.27 | Draw 4.55 | KRC Genk II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.92 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates RSC Anderlecht II as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on RSC Anderlecht II offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.59 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: RSC Anderlecht II 70% | KRC Genk II 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Lotto Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 Feb 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RSC Anderlecht II 44% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG RSC Anderlecht II 1.92 / KRC Genk II 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.009 / def 1.161 | KRC Genk II attack 1.112 / def 1.443 | league avg home 1.316 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: RSC Anderlecht II (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Expected Goals
1.67
KRC Genk II xG
69%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II kick off?
RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 February 2026 at Lotto Park.
What was the final score in RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II?
RSC Anderlecht II 2 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Lotto Park.
What competition is RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II part of?
RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives RSC Anderlecht II a 44% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making RSC Anderlecht II the favourite.
Will both teams score in RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II?
Record (7 meetings): RSC Anderlecht II 2W | Draws 1 | KRC Genk II 4W.
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II in?
RSC Anderlecht II (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
RSC Anderlecht II's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.92. The same calculation in reverse, KRC Genk II's attack versus RSC Anderlecht II's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
RSC Anderlecht II Win
44%
2.27
22%
4.58
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
RSC Anderlecht II xG
Total xG
3.59
1.67
KRC Genk II xG
2.27
44%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.25
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
15%
6.79
Win to Nil
8%
12.09
5%
19.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.0%.
How many goals are RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for RSC Anderlecht II and 1.67 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 52 outings, RSC Anderlecht II have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 9W 17D 26L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for RSC Anderlecht II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II's form line: 9W 10D 33L from 52 games, 0.71 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: RSC Anderlecht II on 0.85 PPG, KRC Genk II on 0.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, RSC Anderlecht II have posted 0.92 PPG from 26 outings (5W 9D 12L).
On the road, KRC Genk II have gone 3W 6D 17L from 26 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
RSC Anderlecht II are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.15 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RSC Anderlecht II have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RSC Anderlecht II
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
RSC Anderlecht II have gone 9W 17D 26L in their last 52 games (0.85 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 9W 10D 33L in their last 52 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — RSC Anderlecht II at home or KRC Genk II away?
RSC Anderlecht II's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — RSC Anderlecht II at home: 0.92 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jan 2024, when KRC Genk II won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
RSC Anderlecht II's record when hosting KRC Genk II specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
RSC Anderlecht II
1
Draws
4
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, RSC Anderlecht II have won 3, KRC Genk II have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when RSC Anderlecht II 2-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
RSC Anderlecht II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — RSC Anderlecht II at 69%, KRC Genk II at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for RSC Anderlecht II and 69% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RSC Anderlecht II home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when RSC Anderlecht II play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of RSC Anderlecht II's games and 62% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is RSC Anderlecht II vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of RSC Anderlecht II's matches and 69% of KRC Genk II's.
Do RSC Anderlecht II and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
RSC Anderlecht II have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RSC Anderlecht II edge out KRC Genk II 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RSC Anderlecht II beat KRC Genk II 2-1 at Lotto Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RSC Anderlecht II 1.92 xG and KRC Genk II 1.67 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RSC Anderlecht II attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against KRC Genk II attack 1.11 / defence 1.44, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RSC Anderlecht II 44% | Draw 22% | KRC Genk II 34%, with RSC Anderlecht II to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (RSC Anderlecht II 64%, KRC Genk II 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
RSC Anderlecht II's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — RSC Anderlecht II 0.85 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the RSC Anderlecht II win broke the near-deadlock. RSC Anderlecht II (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.