Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Deinze – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 57% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lokeren-Temse and Deinze meet at Daknamstadion in Challenger Pro League (matchday 6). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form
Lokeren-Temse (all games): 0W 1D 4L across their last 5 — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Deinze have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Deinze away from home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Deinze are 1.80 PPG clear of Lokeren-Temse over their recent games (2.00 vs 0.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Lokeren-Temse — key trading statistics (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 80% of games.
Deinze — key trading statistics (last 5 games): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lokeren-Temse 20% versus Deinze 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lokeren-Temse 40% | Deinze 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lokeren-Temse 0.97 xG and Deinze 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.823 / defence 1.155 | Deinze attack 1.136 / defence 0.802. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.378. Data: built from Lokeren-Temse's last 5 games and Deinze's last 35.
Result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 20% | Draw 23% | Deinze 57%. Fair-value odds: Lokeren-Temse 5.08 | Draw 4.26 | Deinze 1.76. The model has a clear lean to Deinze (57%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Deinze at 57% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lokeren-Temse 20% (last 5 games) | Deinze 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 6 | Venue: Daknamstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lokeren-Temse 20% | Draw 23% | Deinze 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Lokeren-Temse 0.97 / Deinze 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Lokeren-Temse attack 0.823 / def 1.155 | Deinze attack 1.136 / def 0.802 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.378 • Poisson stance: Deinze (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Lokeren-Temse xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Deinze xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze FAQs
What time does Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze kick off?
Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Daknamstadion.
What was the final score in Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Lokeren-Temse 0 - 0 Deinze.
Where is Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze being played?
The match is being played at Daknamstadion.
What competition is Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze part of?
Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 6) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Our statistical model gives Lokeren-Temse a 20% chance of winning, Deinze a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lokeren-Temse and Deinze will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lokeren-Temse's attack rating (0.82) and Deinze's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Deinze's attack (1.14x) against Lokeren-Temse's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from Lokeren-Temse's last 5 games and Deinze's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
20%
5.08
23%
4.26
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Lokeren-Temse xG
Total xG
2.78
1.81
Deinze xG
5.08
20%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
38%
2.63
Win to Nil
3%
31.02
22%
4.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 11.3 | 10.2 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Lokeren-Temse and Deinze expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Lokeren-Temse and 1.81 for Deinze, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lokeren-Temse come into this having played 5 games, going 0W 1D 4L for 0.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Deinze sit at 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.80 PPG clear of Lokeren-Temse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lokeren-Temse are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Deinze are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lokeren-Temse have seen both teams score in 20% of their recent games; Deinze in 60%.
Defensively: Deinze in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
Deinze
Early Season
Lokeren-Temse (Home) vs Deinze (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lokeren-Temse
Early Season
Deinze
Early Season
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze Form FAQs
What form are Lokeren-Temse and Deinze in coming into this match?
Lokeren-Temse have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 games (0.20 PPG), while Deinze have gone 3W 1D 1L in their last 5 (2.00 PPG).
Have Lokeren-Temse or Deinze been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lokeren-Temse have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Deinze in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 1 H2H match between these sides on record, dating back to September 2024 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent in our data was on 28 September 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Lokeren-Temse
1
Draws
0
Deinze
Recent Meetings
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lokeren-Temse and Deinze?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Lokeren-Temse have won 0, Deinze have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lokeren-Temse and Deinze last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 September 2024: Lokeren-Temse 0-0 Deinze.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lokeren-Temse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lokeren-Temse 20%, Deinze 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Lokeren-Temse) and 60% (Deinze).
On the defensive side: Deinze in 40%; Lokeren-Temse have failed to score in 80% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lokeren-Temse home games / Deinze away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lokeren-Temse vs Deinze Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lokeren-Temse and Deinze matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 60% of Deinze's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lokeren-Temse and Deinze matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Lokeren-Temse's recent games and 60% of Deinze's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lokeren-Temse and Deinze matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Lokeren-Temse's recent matches and 60% of Deinze's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Lokeren-Temse's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lokeren-Temse and Deinze finished level at 0-0 at Daknamstadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lokeren-Temse 0.97 xG and Deinze 1.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lokeren-Temse fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Deinze landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lokeren-Temse attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Deinze attack 1.14 / defence 0.80, drawn from 5/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lokeren-Temse 20% | Draw 23% | Deinze 57%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lokeren-Temse 40%, Deinze 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lokeren-Temse's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 80% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Deinze's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lokeren-Temse conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Deinze managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.