KRC Genk II 1-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Beerschot VA at 60% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Beerschot VA make the trip to De Leunen to face KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League (matchday 8). The match kicks off on Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
KRC Genk II have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
KRC Genk II's form when playing at home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Beerschot VA (all games): 5W 2D 3L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Beerschot VA have posted 4W 0D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Beerschot VA are 0.60 PPG clear of KRC Genk II over their recent games (1.70 vs 1.10). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for KRC Genk II, 2 for Beerschot VA and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 2 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2023, ended KRC Genk II 2–3 Beerschot VA — a Beerschot VA win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Beerschot VA — key trading statistics (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KRC Genk II 58% versus Beerschot VA 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KRC Genk II 58% | Beerschot VA 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: KRC Genk II surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Beerschot VA have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KRC Genk II 1.20 xG and Beerschot VA 2.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / defence 1.273 | Beerschot VA attack 1.234 / defence 0.940. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.413. Beerschot VA have an above-average attack rating of 1.234, which lifts their away xG to 2.22. KRC Genk II's defence rating of 1.273 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Beerschot VA's projected output up. Data: built from KRC Genk II's last 29 games and Beerschot VA's last 28.
Result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 60%. Fair-value odds: KRC Genk II 5.08 | Draw 5.05 | Beerschot VA 1.65. The model has a clear lean to Beerschot VA (60%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.42. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.42 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.20 / 2.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.42 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (KRC Genk II's last 10 home games and Beerschot VA's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KRC Genk II 60% (last 10 home games) | Beerschot VA 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 8 | Venue: De Leunen • Kick-off: Saturday 7 October 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% (Under 34%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG KRC Genk II 1.20 / Beerschot VA 2.22 • Poisson strength factors: KRC Genk II attack 0.985 / def 1.273 | Beerschot VA attack 1.234 / def 0.940 | league avg home 1.294 / away 1.413 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
KRC Genk II xG
Expected Goals
2.22
Beerschot VA xG
62%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA FAQs
What time does KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kick off?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 7 October 2023 at De Leunen.
What was the final score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
KRC Genk II 1 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at De Leunen.
What competition is KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA part of?
KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 8) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives KRC Genk II a 20% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 60% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates KRC Genk II's attack at 0.98x the league average against Beerschot VA's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Beerschot VA's attack (1.23x) against KRC Genk II's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 2.22.
These ratings are built from KRC Genk II's last 29 games and Beerschot VA's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
20%
5.08
20%
5.05
60%
1.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
0 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
KRC Genk II xG
Total xG
3.42
2.22
Beerschot VA xG
5.08
20%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
1.65
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
11%
9.22
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
2%
46.83
18%
5.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 7.3 | 8.1 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.8 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for KRC Genk II and 2.22 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.42.
How confident is the prediction model for KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KRC Genk II's recent record stands at 8W 10D 20L from 38 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-W in the last five.
Beerschot VA, meanwhile, have gone 18W 6D 14L across 38 games — 1.58 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Beerschot VA by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over KRC Genk II heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, KRC Genk II have managed 3W 5D 10L from their last 18 home games — 0.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Beerschot VA's away record stands at 10W 1D 7L across their last 18 away games, a 1.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Beerschot VA come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KRC Genk II are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.39 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
KRC Genk II (Home) vs Beerschot VA (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KRC Genk II
Early Season
Beerschot VA
Early Season
❓ KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA Form FAQs
What form are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
KRC Genk II have gone 8W 10D 20L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 18W 6D 14L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KRC Genk II at home or Beerschot VA away?
Beerschot VA's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KRC Genk II at home: 0.78 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA, the earliest from October 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Beerschot VA have taken the most recent 6 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KRC Genk II have gone 0W 0D 3L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Beerschot VA — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
KRC Genk II
0
Draws
6
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, KRC Genk II have won 0, Beerschot VA have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Beerschot VA 1-0 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KRC Genk II 50%, Beerschot VA 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for KRC Genk II and 72% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KRC Genk II have failed to score in 39% of games; Beerschot VA in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KRC Genk II home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KRC Genk II vs Beerschot VA Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of KRC Genk II's games and 61% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of KRC Genk II's matches and 72% of Beerschot VA's.
Do KRC Genk II and Beerschot VA matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 78% of KRC Genk II's recent matches and 89% of Beerschot VA's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Beerschot VA edge out KRC Genk II 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat KRC Genk II 1-2 at De Leunen, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KRC Genk II 1.20 xG and Beerschot VA 2.22 xG, a combined 3.42. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KRC Genk II attack 0.98 / defence 1.27 against Beerschot VA attack 1.23 / defence 0.94, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KRC Genk II 20% | Draw 20% | Beerschot VA 60%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KRC Genk II 58%, Beerschot VA 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KRC Genk II's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Beerschot VA arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.