K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 Zulte Waregem – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zulte Waregem at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
K. Lierse S.K. host Zulte Waregem at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
K. Lierse S.K. — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion this season.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Zulte Waregem have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Zulte Waregem, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zulte Waregem away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Zulte Waregem's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
K. Lierse S.K. trading profile (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Zulte Waregem trading profile (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 65% and Zulte Waregem 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 72% | Zulte Waregem 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.01 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.990 / defence 1.279 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.389 / defence 0.894. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.545. Zulte Waregem have an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — the away xG of 2.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 36 K. Lierse S.K. games / 14 Zulte Waregem games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 11% | Draw 15% | Zulte Waregem 74%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 9.09 | Draw 6.67 | Zulte Waregem 1.35. The model has a clear lean to Zulte Waregem (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.01 / 2.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Zulte Waregem as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | Zulte Waregem 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 11% | Draw 15% | Zulte Waregem 74% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 60% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.01 / Zulte Waregem 2.75 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.990 / def 1.279 | Zulte Waregem attack 1.389 / def 0.894 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.545 • Poisson stance: Zulte Waregem (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
2.75
Zulte Waregem xG
60%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 9 December 2023 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
K. Lierse S.K. 0 - 1 Zulte Waregem.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 11% chance of winning, Zulte Waregem a 74% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Zulte Waregem the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. Zulte Waregem (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates K. Lierse S.K.'s attack at 0.99x the league average against Zulte Waregem's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Zulte Waregem's attack versus K. Lierse S.K.'s defence, projects 2.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (8.8%), 1-3 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Zulte Waregem Win
11%
8.80
15%
6.66
74%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
1 – 3
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.76
2.75
Zulte Waregem xG
8.80
11%
Home win
6.66
15%
Draw
1.36
74%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
6%
15.56
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
1%
136.89
27%
3.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 |
| 1 | 2.4 | 6.5 | 8.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 3.1 |
| 2 | 1.2 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 2.75 for Zulte Waregem, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, K. Lierse S.K. have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 19W 7D 20L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zulte Waregem's form line: 13W 11D 22L from 46 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W. The sample for Zulte Waregem is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: K. Lierse S.K. on 1.39 PPG, Zulte Waregem on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, K. Lierse S.K. have posted 1.39 PPG from 23 outings (10W 2D 11L).
On the road, Zulte Waregem have gone 9W 6D 8L from 23 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; Zulte Waregem are on 1.65 scored and 2.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Zulte Waregem in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
Zulte Waregem
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 19W 7D 20L in their last 46 games (1.39 PPG), while Zulte Waregem have gone 13W 11D 22L in their last 46 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or Zulte Waregem away?
Zulte Waregem's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.39 PPG; Zulte Waregem away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2024, when Zulte Waregem won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
K. Lierse S.K.'s record when hosting Zulte Waregem specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
2
Zulte Waregem
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem?
From 4 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, Zulte Waregem have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2025, when K. Lierse S.K. 0-0 Zulte Waregem.
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem?
Zulte Waregem have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Zulte Waregem are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — K. Lierse S.K. at 70%, Zulte Waregem at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for K. Lierse S.K. and 65% for Zulte Waregem. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / Zulte Waregem away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play Zulte Waregem?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 65% of Zulte Waregem's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs Zulte Waregem usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 65% of Zulte Waregem's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and Zulte Waregem tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Zulte Waregem in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Zulte Waregem edge out K. Lierse S.K. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zulte Waregem beat K. Lierse S.K. 0-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 15, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.01 xG and Zulte Waregem 2.75 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. K. Lierse S.K. fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Zulte Waregem landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.99 / defence 1.28 against Zulte Waregem attack 1.39 / defence 0.89, drawn from 36/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 11% | Draw 15% | Zulte Waregem 74%, with Zulte Waregem to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 72%, Zulte Waregem 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Zulte Waregem's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.39 PPG, Zulte Waregem 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zulte Waregem win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. Zulte Waregem (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.