K. Lierse S.K. 2-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours K. Lierse S.K. (66%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as K. Lierse S.K. face KRC Genk II.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
AsterX Group-f Arena plays host to K. Lierse S.K. versus KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at AsterX Group-f Arena, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — K. Lierse S.K. are significantly better at AsterX Group-f Arena than their overall form suggests.
KRC Genk II (all games): 2W 0D 8L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, KRC Genk II have posted 1W 1D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. K. Lierse S.K.'s 1.20 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of KRC Genk II's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for K. Lierse S.K., 1 for KRC Genk II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.8 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Feb 2024, ended 3–1 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 66% and KRC Genk II 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 73% | KRC Genk II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 2.42 xG and KRC Genk II 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.236 / defence 1.025 | KRC Genk II attack 0.800 / defence 1.365. League average goals — home 1.436 / away 1.372. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.365 — this is suppressing K. Lierse S.K.'s projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 K. Lierse S.K. games / 41 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 18% | KRC Genk II 16%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 1.52 | Draw 5.56 | KRC Genk II 6.25. The model has a clear lean to K. Lierse S.K. (66%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is K. Lierse S.K. at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.55 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | KRC Genk II 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: AsterX Group-f Arena • Kick-off: Friday 22 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 18% | KRC Genk II 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 62% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 2.42 / KRC Genk II 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.236 / def 1.025 | KRC Genk II attack 0.800 / def 1.365 | league avg home 1.436 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: K. Lierse S.K. (66%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
1.12
KRC Genk II xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 November 2024 at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
K. Lierse S.K. 2 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at AsterX Group-f Arena.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 66% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 16% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making K. Lierse S.K. the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II?
Record (4 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 3W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from K. Lierse S.K.'s attack rating (1.24) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.36), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.80x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.9%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
K. Lierse S.K. Win
66%
1.52
18%
5.53
16%
6.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.55
1.12
KRC Genk II xG
1.52
66%
Home win
5.53
18%
Draw
6.25
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
9%
11.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.67
1%
70.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 1.12 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 41 games, going 14W 8D 19L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KRC Genk II sit at 1.12 PPG from 41 outings (13W 7D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.12 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 8W 3D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, KRC Genk II have taken 0.95 points per game from 20 outings (5W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, K. Lierse S.K. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.85 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.41 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 66%.
Last 41 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 14W 8D 19L in their last 41 games (1.22 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 13W 7D 21L in their last 41 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or KRC Genk II away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.35 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
K. Lierse S.K. go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when KRC Genk II 2-3 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for K. Lierse S.K., 70% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for K. Lierse S.K. and 70% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 70% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 70% of KRC Genk II's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II finished level at 2-2 at AsterX Group-f Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 2.42 xG and KRC Genk II 1.12 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against KRC Genk II attack 0.80 / defence 1.36, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 66% | Draw 18% | KRC Genk II 16%, with K. Lierse S.K. to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 47% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 73%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.22 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.