K. Lierse S.K. 3-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KRC Genk II at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Herman Vanderpoortenstadion plays host to K. Lierse S.K. versus KRC Genk II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 16 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
K. Lierse S.K. have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
KRC Genk II (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, KRC Genk II have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
KRC Genk II arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — K. Lierse S.K. register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, KRC Genk II in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for K. Lierse S.K., 1 for KRC Genk II and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 3–1 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — K. Lierse S.K. 64% and KRC Genk II 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (K. Lierse S.K. 72% | KRC Genk II 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 xG and KRC Genk II 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.962 / defence 1.295 | KRC Genk II attack 1.070 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.466. Data: 43 K. Lierse S.K. games / 43 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 24% | Draw 21% | KRC Genk II 54%. Fair-value odds: K. Lierse S.K. 4.17 | Draw 4.76 | KRC Genk II 1.85. KRC Genk II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 2.03) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KRC Genk II at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.34 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: K. Lierse S.K. 70% | KRC Genk II 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Herman Vanderpoortenstadion • Kick-off: Friday 16 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: K. Lierse S.K. 24% | Draw 21% | KRC Genk II 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 63% | xG K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 / KRC Genk II 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.962 / def 1.295 | KRC Genk II attack 1.070 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: KRC Genk II (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Expected Goals
2.03
KRC Genk II xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II kick off?
K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 16 February 2024 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What was the final score in K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
K. Lierse S.K. 3 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion.
What competition is K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II part of?
K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives K. Lierse S.K. a 24% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 54% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making KRC Genk II the favourite.
Will both teams score in K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II?
Record (3 meetings): K. Lierse S.K. 2W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 1W.
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II in?
K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from K. Lierse S.K.'s attack rating (0.96) and KRC Genk II's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (1.07x) against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 2.03.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
KRC Genk II Win
24%
4.08
21%
4.67
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
0 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
K. Lierse S.K. xG
Total xG
3.34
2.03
KRC Genk II xG
4.08
24%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
13%
7.61
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
3%
31.09
15%
6.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.2 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for K. Lierse S.K. and 2.03 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 3.34.
How confident is the prediction model for K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
K. Lierse S.K. come into this having played 53 games, going 19W 8D 26L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for K. Lierse S.K. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, KRC Genk II sit at 1.02 PPG from 53 outings (14W 12D 27L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for K. Lierse S.K. against 1.02 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
K. Lierse S.K.'s home form reads 10W 2D 14L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, KRC Genk II have taken 1.04 points per game from 26 outings (7W 6D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
K. Lierse S.K. are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.36 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 64%.
Last 53 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
K. Lierse S.K.
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
K. Lierse S.K. have gone 19W 8D 26L in their last 53 games (1.23 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 14W 12D 27L in their last 53 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — K. Lierse S.K. at home or KRC Genk II away?
K. Lierse S.K.'s home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.23 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
K. Lierse S.K. go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won 4-1 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
K. Lierse S.K.
1
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II?
From 8 meetings on record, K. Lierse S.K. have won 6, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when KRC Genk II 2-3 K. Lierse S.K..
Who has won more matches between K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II?
K. Lierse S.K. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 69% for K. Lierse S.K., 69% for KRC Genk II — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for K. Lierse S.K. and 62% for KRC Genk II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = K. Lierse S.K. home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when K. Lierse S.K. play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of K. Lierse S.K.'s games and 69% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is K. Lierse S.K. vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of K. Lierse S.K.'s matches and 62% of KRC Genk II's.
Do K. Lierse S.K. and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
K. Lierse S.K. have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
K. Lierse S.K. cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over KRC Genk II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
K. Lierse S.K. beat KRC Genk II 3-1 at Herman Vanderpoortenstadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting K. Lierse S.K. 1.31 xG and KRC Genk II 2.03 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. K. Lierse S.K. beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. KRC Genk II landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.96 / defence 1.29 against KRC Genk II attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it K. Lierse S.K. 24% | Draw 21% | KRC Genk II 54%, with KRC Genk II to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a K. Lierse S.K. win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (K. Lierse S.K. 72%, KRC Genk II 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — K. Lierse S.K. 1.23 PPG, KRC Genk II 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the K. Lierse S.K. win broke the near-deadlock. K. Lierse S.K. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.