Francs Borains 1-3 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Patro Eisden at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Francs Borains face Patro Eisden.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

Francs Borains welcome Patro Eisden to Stade Robert Urbain in Challenger Pro League (matchday 20). Kick-off is Sunday 2 February 2025 at 12:30 UK time.

Form Guide

Francs Borains — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Across their last 10 games, Patro Eisden have recorded 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Patro Eisden have posted 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Francs Borains) versus 1.80 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Francs Borains's games and 60% of Patro Eisden's (from Francs Borains's last 10 home games and Patro Eisden's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Francs Borains, 2 for Patro Eisden and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 21 Sep 2024, ended Francs Borains 1–4 Patro Eisden — a Patro Eisden win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Francs Borains trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Patro Eisden trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 55% versus Patro Eisden 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 65% | Patro Eisden 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 0.96 xG and Patro Eisden 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.844 / defence 1.099 | Patro Eisden attack 1.073 / defence 0.817. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.356. Data: built from Francs Borains's last 49 games and Patro Eisden's last 49.

Result probabilities: Francs Borains 22% | Draw 26% | Patro Eisden 52%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 4.44 | Draw 3.92 | Patro Eisden 1.92. Patro Eisden hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Patro Eisden at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Patro Eisden offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Francs Borains 60% (last 10 home games) | Patro Eisden 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights