Francs Borains 2-2 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Francs Borains at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Stade Robert Urbain to face Francs Borains in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Francs Borains have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Francs Borains's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Stade Robert Urbain this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Robert Urbain. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Challenger Pro League this season, KRC Genk II have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Francs Borains, 1.30 for KRC Genk II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Francs Borains lead 1W to 2W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Oct 2025, ended 1–3 with KRC Genk II winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Francs Borains goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
KRC Genk II goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Francs Borains 46% versus KRC Genk II 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Francs Borains 51% | KRC Genk II 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Francs Borains 1.57 xG and KRC Genk II 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Francs Borains attack 0.862 / defence 0.783 | KRC Genk II attack 0.962 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.402. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Francs Borains's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Francs Borains's defence rating of 0.783 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Francs Borains games / 59 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Francs Borains 49% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25%. Fair-value odds: Francs Borains 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | KRC Genk II 4.00. Francs Borains hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Francs Borains are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Francs Borains if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.63 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Francs Borains 10% | KRC Genk II 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Robert Urbain • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Francs Borains 49% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Francs Borains 1.57 / KRC Genk II 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Francs Borains attack 0.862 / def 0.783 | KRC Genk II attack 0.962 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Francs Borains (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Francs Borains xG
Expected Goals
1.06
KRC Genk II xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Stade Robert Urbain.
What was the final score in Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Francs Borains 2 - 2 KRC Genk II.
Where is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Robert Urbain.
What competition is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II part of?
Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Francs Borains a 49% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Francs Borains the favourite.
Will both teams score in Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Francs Borains and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
Record (5 meetings): Francs Borains 1W | Draws 2 | KRC Genk II 2W.
What form are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II in?
Francs Borains (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. KRC Genk II (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Francs Borains's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against KRC Genk II's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.96x) against Francs Borains's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Francs Borains Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.97
25%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Francs Borains xG
Total xG
2.63
1.06
KRC Genk II xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.92
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
17%
5.83
5%
18.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Francs Borains and 1.06 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Francs Borains's recent record stands at 18W 11D 30L from 59 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 36L across 59 games — 0.73 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Francs Borains against 0.73 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Francs Borains have managed 9W 6D 14L from 29 games — 1.14 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 3W 7D 19L across 29 trips, a 0.55 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Francs Borains come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Francs Borains are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.17 scored and 2.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: KRC Genk II in 61%.
Last 59 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Francs Borains
Current Season
KRC Genk II
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Francs Borains and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Francs Borains have gone 18W 11D 30L in their last 59 games (1.10 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 10W 13D 36L in their last 59 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Francs Borains at home or KRC Genk II away?
Francs Borains's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Francs Borains at home: 1.14 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KRC Genk II won 2-5 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Francs Borains have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Francs Borains
3
Draws
2
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
From 6 meetings on record, Francs Borains have won 1, KRC Genk II have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Francs Borains and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Francs Borains 2-2 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Francs Borains and KRC Genk II?
KRC Genk II have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Francs Borains are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Francs Borains 41%, KRC Genk II 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Francs Borains) and 72% (KRC Genk II). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Francs Borains keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Francs Borains have failed to score in 38% of games; KRC Genk II in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Francs Borains home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Francs Borains play KRC Genk II?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Francs Borains's recent matches and 66% of KRC Genk II's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Francs Borains vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Francs Borains's matches and 72% of KRC Genk II's.
Do Francs Borains and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Francs Borains have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Francs Borains and KRC Genk II share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Francs Borains and KRC Genk II finished level at 2-2 at Stade Robert Urbain, Regular Season - 33, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Francs Borains 1.57 xG and KRC Genk II 1.06 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. KRC Genk II outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Francs Borains attack 0.86 / defence 0.78 against KRC Genk II attack 0.96 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Francs Borains 49% | Draw 25% | KRC Genk II 25%, with Francs Borains to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Francs Borains 51%, KRC Genk II 68%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Francs Borains's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Francs Borains 1.10 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Francs Borains (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.