Excelsior Virton 0-1 KRC Genk II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior Virton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KRC Genk II make the trip to Stade Yvan Georges to face Excelsior Virton in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 12 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Excelsior Virton (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior Virton have posted 0W 5D 5L at Stade Yvan Georges — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
KRC Genk II's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for KRC Genk II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KRC Genk II away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Excelsior Virton, 0.80 for KRC Genk II — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Excelsior Virton 1W, KRC Genk II 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Excelsior Virton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior Virton — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
KRC Genk II — key trading statistics (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 60% and KRC Genk II 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 55% | KRC Genk II 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.26 xG and KRC Genk II 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.652 / defence 1.034 | KRC Genk II attack 0.788 / defence 1.326. League average goals — home 1.458 / away 1.445. Excelsior Virton's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KRC Genk II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.326 — this is suppressing Excelsior Virton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Excelsior Virton games / 20 KRC Genk II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 38% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 34%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | KRC Genk II 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior Virton are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Excelsior Virton 50% | KRC Genk II 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 38% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.26 / KRC Genk II 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.652 / def 1.034 | KRC Genk II attack 0.788 / def 1.326 | league avg home 1.458 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.18
KRC Genk II xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 12 February 2023 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II?
Excelsior Virton 0 - 1 KRC Genk II.
Where is Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II part of?
Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 38% chance of winning, KRC Genk II a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior Virton 1W | Draws 0 | KRC Genk II 0W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. KRC Genk II (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 0.65x the league average against KRC Genk II's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KRC Genk II's attack (0.79x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 49/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
38%
2.61
27%
3.65
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.44
1.18
KRC Genk II xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
12%
8.47
10%
10.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.0 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.18 for KRC Genk II, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior Virton's recent record stands at 2W 7D 11L from 20 games, a 0.65 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior Virton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KRC Genk II, meanwhile, have gone 4W 4D 12L across 20 games — 0.80 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for KRC Genk II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.65 PPG for Excelsior Virton against 0.80 for KRC Genk II. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Excelsior Virton have managed 0W 4D 5L from 9 games — 0.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KRC Genk II's away record stands at 1W 2D 6L across 9 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior Virton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; KRC Genk II are on 1.25 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior Virton have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; KRC Genk II in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Blended
KRC Genk II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 2W 7D 11L in their last 20 games (0.65 PPG), while KRC Genk II have gone 4W 4D 12L in their last 20 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or KRC Genk II away?
KRC Genk II's away record (0.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 0.44 PPG; KRC Genk II away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against KRC Genk II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Excelsior Virton
1
Draws
1
KRC Genk II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 2, KRC Genk II have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2023, when Excelsior Virton 3-1 KRC Genk II.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II?
Excelsior Virton have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior Virton see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
KRC Genk II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior Virton 44%, KRC Genk II 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Excelsior Virton) and 67% (KRC Genk II).
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 56% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / KRC Genk II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play KRC Genk II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Excelsior Virton's games and 67% of KRC Genk II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs KRC Genk II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 67% of KRC Genk II's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and KRC Genk II tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, KRC Genk II in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as KRC Genk II defy the odds to beat Excelsior Virton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KRC Genk II beat Excelsior Virton 0-1 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 22, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.26 xG and KRC Genk II 1.18 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior Virton fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.65 / defence 1.03 against KRC Genk II attack 0.79 / defence 1.33, drawn from 49/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 38% | Draw 27% | KRC Genk II 34%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual KRC Genk II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 55%, KRC Genk II 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KRC Genk II's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior Virton 0.65 PPG, KRC Genk II 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KRC Genk II win broke the near-deadlock. KRC Genk II (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.