Excelsior Virton 2-1 K. Lierse S.K. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior Virton at 36%, yet in-form K. Lierse S.K. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Yvan Georges plays host to Excelsior Virton versus K. Lierse S.K. in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 16 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior Virton's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 1W 3D 3L from 7 games (0.86 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.57 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior Virton's form when playing at home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 games at Stade Yvan Georges this term (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
K. Lierse S.K. (all games): 3W 2D 2L across 7 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.57 points per game. Last five: L W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. K. Lierse S.K. have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
K. Lierse S.K.'s away record: 0W 1D 2L from 3 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.33 is notably below their overall 1.57 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, K. Lierse S.K. are the stronger side — 0.71 PPG clear of the hosts (1.57 vs 0.86). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Excelsior Virton have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, K. Lierse S.K. in 100%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior Virton lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2021, ended 0–2 with K. Lierse S.K. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Excelsior Virton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
K. Lierse S.K. goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games; Over 3.5 in 57%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior Virton 57% and K. Lierse S.K. 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior Virton 29% | K. Lierse S.K. 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior Virton 1.47 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior Virton attack 0.902 / defence 1.092 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.833 / defence 1.411. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.523. K. Lierse S.K. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.411 — this is suppressing Excelsior Virton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Excelsior Virton games / 7 K. Lierse S.K. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 36% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 32%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior Virton 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | K. Lierse S.K. 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior Virton as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form K. Lierse S.K. (1.57 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Excelsior Virton if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.86 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior Virton 67% | K. Lierse S.K. 100% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stade Yvan Georges • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior Virton 36% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 61% | xG Excelsior Virton 1.47 / K. Lierse S.K. 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior Virton attack 0.902 / def 1.092 | K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.833 / def 1.411 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.523 • Poisson stance: Excelsior Virton (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Excelsior Virton xG
Expected Goals
1.39
K. Lierse S.K. xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. kick off?
Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 16 October 2021 at Stade Yvan Georges.
What was the final score in Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Excelsior Virton 2 - 1 K. Lierse S.K..
Where is Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. being played?
The match is being played at Stade Yvan Georges.
What competition is Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. part of?
Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior Virton a 36% chance of winning, K. Lierse S.K. a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Excelsior Virton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K.?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior Virton 0W | Draws 0 | K. Lierse S.K. 1W.
What form are Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. in?
Excelsior Virton (all comps): 1W-3D-3L in 7 | 0.86 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. K. Lierse S.K. (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.57 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Excelsior Virton's attack at 0.90x the league average against K. Lierse S.K.'s defence at 1.41x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — K. Lierse S.K.'s attack (0.83x) against Excelsior Virton's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Virton Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.13
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Excelsior Virton xG
Total xG
2.86
1.39
K. Lierse S.K. xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
7%
13.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.7 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Excelsior Virton and 1.39 for K. Lierse S.K., a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 7 outings, Excelsior Virton have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 1W 3D 3L record — D-W-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
K. Lierse S.K.'s form line: 3W 2D 2L from 7 games, 1.57 PPG, last five L-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for K. Lierse S.K., so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, K. Lierse S.K. are the form team by 0.71 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Excelsior Virton.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Excelsior Virton have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.86 PPG overall — Excelsior Virton are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, K. Lierse S.K. have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.57 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of K. Lierse S.K.'s season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior Virton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Excelsior Virton are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; K. Lierse S.K. are on 2.00 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: K. Lierse S.K. in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
K. Lierse S.K.
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. in coming into this match?
Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 3D 3L in their last 7 games (0.86 PPG), while K. Lierse S.K. have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior Virton at home or K. Lierse S.K. away?
Excelsior Virton's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior Virton at home: 1.33 PPG; K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 November 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior Virton have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against K. Lierse S.K. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Excelsior Virton
4
Draws
1
K. Lierse S.K.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K.?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior Virton have won 1, K. Lierse S.K. have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. last play each other?
They last met on 27 November 2022, when K. Lierse S.K. 2-2 Excelsior Virton.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
K. Lierse S.K. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Excelsior Virton, 100% for K. Lierse S.K. — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Excelsior Virton) and 67% (K. Lierse S.K.).
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior Virton home games / K. Lierse S.K. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior Virton play K. Lierse S.K.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior Virton's games and 100% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior Virton vs K. Lierse S.K. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Excelsior Virton's recent games and 67% of K. Lierse S.K.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior Virton and K. Lierse S.K. tend to score early?
Excelsior Virton have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, K. Lierse S.K. in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Excelsior Virton edge out K. Lierse S.K. 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior Virton beat K. Lierse S.K. 2-1 at Stade Yvan Georges, Regular Season - 8, in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior Virton 1.47 xG and K. Lierse S.K. 1.39 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior Virton attack 0.90 / defence 1.09 against K. Lierse S.K. attack 0.83 / defence 1.41, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior Virton 36% | Draw 32% | K. Lierse S.K. 32%, with Excelsior Virton to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior Virton 29%, K. Lierse S.K. 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
K. Lierse S.K.'s trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, K. Lierse S.K. arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.86. Form was overturned, with Excelsior Virton winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.