Dender 0-1 Standard Liège II – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Standard Liège II at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dender vs Standard Liège II encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dender Football Complex plays host to Dender versus Standard Liège II in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 26 August 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dender's overall Challenger Pro League record this term: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games (0.00 PPG). Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Dender have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Standard Liège II (all games): 0W 2D 0L across 2 Challenger Pro League outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Standard Liège II have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Standard Liège II are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.46 xG and Standard Liège II 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 0.858 / defence 1.429 | Standard Liège II attack 0.929 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.356. Standard Liège II bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Dender's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Dender games / 2 Standard Liège II games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dender 31% | Draw 23% | Standard Liège II 46%. Fair-value odds: Dender 3.23 | Draw 4.35 | Standard Liège II 2.17. Standard Liège II hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.46 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Standard Liège II at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Standard Liège II if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Standard Liège II | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dender Football Complex • Kick-off: Friday 26 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 31% | Draw 23% | Standard Liège II 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG Dender 1.46 / Standard Liège II 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 0.858 / def 1.429 | Standard Liège II attack 0.929 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.402 / away 1.356 • Poisson stance: Standard Liège II (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Dender xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Standard Liège II xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Standard Liège II kick off?
Dender vs Standard Liège II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 26 August 2022 at Dender Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Standard Liège II?
Dender 0 - 1 Standard Liège II.
Where is Dender vs Standard Liège II being played?
The match is being played at Dender Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Standard Liège II part of?
Dender vs Standard Liège II is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Standard Liège II?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 31% chance of winning, Standard Liège II a 46% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Standard Liège II the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Standard Liège II?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dender and Standard Liège II will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Standard Liège II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Standard Liège II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dender and Standard Liège II in?
Dender (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L. Standard Liège II (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dender's attack rating (0.86) and Standard Liège II's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Standard Liège II's attack (0.93x) against Dender's defence (1.43x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Standard Liège II Win
31%
3.18
23%
4.38
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
2 – 1
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Dender xG
Total xG
3.26
1.80
Standard Liège II xG
3.18
31%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
17%
6.05
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
5%
19.25
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.9 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Standard Liège II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Dender and Standard Liège II expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Dender and 1.80 for Standard Liège II, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Standard Liège II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 2 outings, Dender have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 2L record — L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Dender, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Standard Liège II's form line: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-D. It's still early in the season for Standard Liège II, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Standard Liège II are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Dender.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dender are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Standard Liège II are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Standard Liège II in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Early Season
Standard Liège II
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Standard Liège II in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Standard Liège II have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Dender go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dender won 0-4 on 9 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dender have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Standard Liège II — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dender
3
Draws
1
Standard Liège II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Standard Liège II?
From 6 meetings on record, Dender have won 2, Standard Liège II have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Standard Liège II last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2024, when Dender 4-1 Standard Liège II.
Who has won more matches between Dender and Standard Liège II?
Dender have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Standard Liège II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Standard Liège II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Dender's games and 100% of Standard Liège II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dender vs Standard Liège II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Dender's matches and 100% of Standard Liège II's.
Do Dender and Standard Liège II tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Standard Liège II in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Standard Liège II edge out Dender 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Standard Liège II beat Dender 0-1 at Dender Football Complex, Regular Season - 3, in the Challenger Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.46 xG and Standard Liège II 1.80 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dender fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Standard Liège II landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 0.86 / defence 1.43 against Standard Liège II attack 0.93 / defence 1.22, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Dender 31% | Draw 23% | Standard Liège II 46%, with Standard Liège II to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 50%, Standard Liège II 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Standard Liège II arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dender conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line. Standard Liège II managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.