Dender 0-0 Patro Eisden – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dender at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dender vs Patro Eisden fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 19 sees Patro Eisden travel to DENDER Football Complex to take on Dender. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 January 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Dender have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dender, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dender's home record at DENDER Football Complex: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Challenger Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at DENDER Football Complex this season.
Patro Eisden — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Patro Eisden, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 3D 2L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 9 away games (44%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (Dender) versus 1.70 (Patro Eisden). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Dender, 0 for Patro Eisden and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Sep 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dender in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Patro Eisden in-play and half-time data (18 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dender 67% versus Patro Eisden 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dender 50% | Patro Eisden 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dender 1.09 xG and Patro Eisden 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dender attack 1.034 / defence 0.855 | Patro Eisden attack 0.712 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.472. Data: 39 Dender games / 18 Patro Eisden games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dender 40% | Draw 31% | Patro Eisden 29%. Fair-value odds: Dender 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Patro Eisden 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Dender as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dender offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dender 60% | Patro Eisden 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dender vs Patro Eisden | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: DENDER Football Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Jan 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dender 40% | Draw 31% | Patro Eisden 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Dender 1.09 / Patro Eisden 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dender attack 1.034 / def 0.855 | Patro Eisden attack 0.712 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.472 • Poisson stance: Dender (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Dender xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Patro Eisden xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dender vs Patro Eisden kick off?
Dender vs Patro Eisden kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 January 2024 at DENDER Football Complex.
What was the final score in Dender vs Patro Eisden?
Dender 0 - 0 Patro Eisden.
Where is Dender vs Patro Eisden being played?
The match is being played at DENDER Football Complex.
What competition is Dender vs Patro Eisden part of?
Dender vs Patro Eisden is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Dender vs Patro Eisden?
Our statistical model gives Dender a 40% chance of winning, Patro Eisden a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Dender the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dender vs Patro Eisden?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Dender and Patro Eisden will score (BTTS).
Will Dender vs Patro Eisden have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Patro Eisden?
Record (1 meetings): Dender 0W | Draws 1 | Patro Eisden 0W.
What form are Dender and Patro Eisden in?
Dender (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Patro Eisden (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Dender's attack rating (1.03) and Patro Eisden's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Patro Eisden's attack versus Dender's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dender Win
40%
2.51
31%
3.25
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Dender xG
Total xG
1.99
0.90
Patro Eisden xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
10%
10.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dender vs Patro Eisden?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Dender and Patro Eisden expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Dender and 0.90 for Patro Eisden, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Dender vs Patro Eisden?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Dender have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 8W 6D 4L record — L-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dender is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Patro Eisden's form line: 9W 4D 5L from 18 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W. The sample for Patro Eisden is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dender on 1.67 PPG, Patro Eisden on 1.72. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Dender have posted 1.50 PPG from 8 outings (3W 3D 2L).
On the road, Patro Eisden have gone 4W 3D 1L from 8 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Dender are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Patro Eisden are on 1.39 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dender have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 18 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dender
Blended
Patro Eisden
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dender and Patro Eisden in coming into this match?
Dender have gone 8W 6D 4L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while Patro Eisden have gone 9W 4D 5L in their last 18 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dender at home or Patro Eisden away?
Patro Eisden's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dender at home: 1.50 PPG; Patro Eisden away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Dender or Patro Eisden been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dender have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Patro Eisden in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Dender
2
Draws
0
Patro Eisden
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dender and Patro Eisden?
From 2 meetings on record, Dender have won 0, Patro Eisden have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dender and Patro Eisden last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2024, when Dender 0-0 Patro Eisden.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Dender are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Patro Eisden see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dender 62%, Patro Eisden 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dender) and 38% (Patro Eisden).
On the defensive side: Dender keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Patro Eisden in 50%; Patro Eisden in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dender home games / Patro Eisden away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dender play Patro Eisden?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Dender's recent matches and 38% of Patro Eisden's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dender vs Patro Eisden usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dender's recent games and 38% of Patro Eisden's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dender and Patro Eisden tend to score early?
Dender have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Patro Eisden in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Dender's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at DENDER Football Complex, Regular Season - 19, as Dender and Patro Eisden drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dender 1.09 xG and Patro Eisden 0.90 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dender fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Patro Eisden landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dender attack 1.03 / defence 0.85 against Patro Eisden attack 0.71 / defence 0.87, drawn from 39/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dender 40% | Draw 31% | Patro Eisden 29%, with Dender to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dender 50%, Patro Eisden 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dender's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Patro Eisden's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dender 1.67 PPG, Patro Eisden 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dender (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Patro Eisden (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.