Deinze 1-1 Lommel United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Deinze at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Deinze vs Lommel United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Lommel United at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 1L across 9 games at Dakota Arena this term (1.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Deinze have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Deinze register both teams scoring in 78% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 70% and Lommel United 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Deinze 65% | Lommel United 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.94 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.166 / defence 1.169 | Lommel United attack 0.728 / defence 1.550. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.329. Lommel United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.550 — this is suppressing Deinze's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Deinze games / 20 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 56% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 22%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Lommel United 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Deinze (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.07 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 78% | Lommel United 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 56% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Deinze 1.94 / Lommel United 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.166 / def 1.169 | Lommel United attack 0.728 / def 1.550 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Deinze (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Lommel United xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Lommel United kick off?
Deinze vs Lommel United kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 20 February 2022 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Deinze 1 - 1 Lommel United.
Where is Deinze vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Lommel United part of?
Deinze vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 56% chance of winning, Lommel United a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Deinze and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in?
Deinze (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Lommel United (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.17) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
56%
1.78
22%
4.56
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.07
1.13
Lommel United xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
14%
6.96
Win to Nil
18%
5.51
3%
31.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 9.9 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Deinze and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Deinze and 1.13 for Lommel United, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 6W 10D 4L record — D-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 5W 4D 11L from 20 games, 0.95 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Deinze are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lommel United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (4W 4D 1L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.40 scored and 1.70 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Lommel United in 60%.
Last 20 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 6W 10D 4L in their last 20 games (1.40 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 5W 4D 11L in their last 20 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Lommel United away?
Deinze's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.78 PPG; Lommel United away: 0.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Deinze
3
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Lommel United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 78%, Lommel United at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Deinze and 78% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lommel United in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Deinze's games and 67% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Deinze's matches and 78% of Lommel United's.
Do Deinze and Lommel United tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze and Lommel United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Deinze and Lommel United finished level at 1-1 at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.94 xG and Lommel United 1.13 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Deinze fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against Lommel United attack 0.73 / defence 1.55, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 56% | Draw 22% | Lommel United 22%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 65%, Lommel United 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Lommel United's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Lommel United (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.