Deinze vs Lommel United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Deinze at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Deinze vs Lommel United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Deinze host Lommel United at Dakota Arena in Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 18 January 2025 at 00:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Deinze — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Deinze, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Deinze's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Dakota Arena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Deinze are significantly better at Dakota Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Challenger Pro League games this season, Lommel United have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lommel United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lommel United away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Deinze at 1.10 PPG versus Lommel United's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Deinze register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Lommel United in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Lommel United have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 10 encounters against Deinze's 2 victories.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lommel United have won 5 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Deinze in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Lommel United in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 58% and Lommel United 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 60% | Lommel United 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.51 xG and Lommel United 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 0.905 / defence 1.000 | Lommel United attack 1.002 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.387. Data: 44 Deinze games / 46 Lommel United games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Deinze 40% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 35%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Lommel United 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 60% | Lommel United 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Lommel United | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Jan 2025, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 40% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Deinze 1.51 / Lommel United 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 0.905 / def 1.000 | Lommel United attack 1.002 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Deinze (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Lommel United xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Lommel United kick off?
Deinze vs Lommel United kicked off at 00:00 on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Dakota Arena.
Where is Deinze vs Lommel United being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Lommel United part of?
Deinze vs Lommel United is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 40% chance of winning, Lommel United a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Deinze and Lommel United will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Lommel United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
Record (10 meetings): Deinze 2W | Draws 3 | Lommel United 5W.
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in?
Deinze (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Lommel United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (0.91) and Lommel United's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lommel United's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
40%
2.48
25%
4.05
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Deinze xG
Total xG
2.90
1.39
Lommel United xG
2.48
40%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
10%
9.95
8%
12.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.5 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Deinze and Lommel United expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Deinze and 1.39 for Lommel United, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Lommel United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Deinze have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 23W 9D 16L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Deinze is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lommel United's form line: 18W 14D 16L from 48 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Lommel United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Deinze on 1.62 PPG, Lommel United on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Deinze have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (13W 5D 6L).
On the road, Lommel United have gone 9W 6D 9L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lommel United are on 1.56 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lommel United in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Blended
Lommel United
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Lommel United in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 23W 9D 16L in their last 48 games (1.62 PPG), while Lommel United have gone 18W 14D 16L in their last 48 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Lommel United away?
Deinze's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.83 PPG; Lommel United away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Lommel United runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Lommel United specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Deinze
3
Draws
5
Lommel United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Lommel United?
From 10 meetings on record, Deinze have won 2, Lommel United have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Lommel United last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Lommel United 1-1 Deinze.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Lommel United?
Lommel United have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Lommel United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 62%, Lommel United at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Deinze and 75% for Lommel United. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Lommel United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Lommel United?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Deinze's games and 71% of Lommel United's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Lommel United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Deinze's matches and 75% of Lommel United's.
Do Deinze and Lommel United tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lommel United in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Deinze's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 18, as Deinze and Lommel United drew 0-0 in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.51 xG and Lommel United 1.39 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Deinze fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Lommel United landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 0.91 / defence 1.00 against Lommel United attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 44/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 40% | Draw 25% | Lommel United 35%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 60%, Lommel United 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Lommel United's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Deinze 1.62 PPG, Lommel United 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Lommel United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.