Deinze 1-1 Excelsior Virton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Deinze (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Deinze face Excelsior Virton.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Challenger Pro League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Excelsior Virton travel to Dakota Arena to take on Deinze. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Deinze stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Challenger Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Deinze have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Deinze at Dakota Arena this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior Virton — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Challenger Pro League fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior Virton have played only a handful of Challenger Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior Virton's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Challenger Pro League this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Deinze carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Deinze: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Excelsior Virton, with 1 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Deinze winning.
The historical record gives Deinze a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Deinze in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games).
Excelsior Virton in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Deinze 70% and Excelsior Virton 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Deinze 67% | Excelsior Virton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Deinze 1.86 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Deinze attack 1.246 / defence 1.088 | Excelsior Virton attack 1.003 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.403. Data: 30 Deinze games / 30 Excelsior Virton games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Deinze 46% | Draw 22% | Excelsior Virton 32%. Fair-value odds: Deinze 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Excelsior Virton 3.12. Deinze hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Deinze are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Deinze offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Deinze 80% | Excelsior Virton 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Deinze vs Excelsior Virton | Competition: Challenger Pro League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Dakota Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Deinze 46% | Draw 22% | Excelsior Virton 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 66% | xG Deinze 1.86 / Excelsior Virton 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Deinze attack 1.246 / def 1.088 | Excelsior Virton attack 1.003 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Deinze (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Deinze xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Excelsior Virton xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Deinze vs Excelsior Virton kick off?
Deinze vs Excelsior Virton kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Dakota Arena.
What was the final score in Deinze vs Excelsior Virton?
Deinze 1 - 1 Excelsior Virton.
Where is Deinze vs Excelsior Virton being played?
The match is being played at Dakota Arena.
What competition is Deinze vs Excelsior Virton part of?
Deinze vs Excelsior Virton is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Challenger Pro League (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Deinze vs Excelsior Virton?
Our statistical model gives Deinze a 46% chance of winning, Excelsior Virton a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Deinze the favourite.
Will both teams score in Deinze vs Excelsior Virton?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Deinze and Excelsior Virton will score (BTTS).
Will Deinze vs Excelsior Virton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Excelsior Virton?
Record (4 meetings): Deinze 3W | Draws 1 | Excelsior Virton 0W.
What form are Deinze and Excelsior Virton in?
Deinze (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Excelsior Virton (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Deinze's attack rating (1.25) and Excelsior Virton's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior Virton's attack versus Deinze's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Deinze Win
46%
2.19
22%
4.47
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Deinze xG
Total xG
3.39
1.53
Excelsior Virton xG
2.19
46%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
16%
6.42
Win to Nil
10%
10.14
5%
20.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.2 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 9.6 | 7.3 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.9 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Deinze vs Excelsior Virton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Deinze and Excelsior Virton expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Deinze and 1.53 for Excelsior Virton, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Deinze vs Excelsior Virton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Deinze come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 13D 7L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Deinze, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Excelsior Virton sit at 0.77 PPG from 30 outings (5W 8D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior Virton, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Deinze carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Excelsior Virton — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Deinze's home form reads 6W 6D 3L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior Virton have taken 0.53 points per game from 15 outings (1W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Deinze come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Deinze are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Excelsior Virton are on 0.90 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Deinze have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Challenger Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Deinze
Early Season
Excelsior Virton
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Deinze and Excelsior Virton in coming into this match?
Deinze have gone 10W 13D 7L in their last 30 games (1.43 PPG), while Excelsior Virton have gone 5W 8D 17L in their last 30 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Deinze at home or Excelsior Virton away?
Deinze's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Deinze at home: 1.60 PPG; Excelsior Virton away: 0.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Deinze and Excelsior Virton runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Challenger Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Deinze have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2021, when Deinze won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Deinze's record when hosting Excelsior Virton specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Deinze
2
Draws
0
Excelsior Virton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Deinze and Excelsior Virton?
From 8 meetings on record, Deinze have won 6, Excelsior Virton have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Deinze and Excelsior Virton last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Deinze 3-1 Excelsior Virton.
Who has won more matches between Deinze and Excelsior Virton?
Deinze have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Deinze are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Excelsior Virton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Deinze at 80%, Excelsior Virton at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Deinze and 60% for Excelsior Virton. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior Virton in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Deinze home games / Excelsior Virton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Deinze play Excelsior Virton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Deinze's games and 60% of Excelsior Virton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Deinze vs Excelsior Virton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Deinze's matches and 60% of Excelsior Virton's.
Do Deinze and Excelsior Virton tend to score early?
Deinze have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Excelsior Virton in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Deinze and Excelsior Virton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dakota Arena, Regular Season - 3, as Deinze and Excelsior Virton drew 1-1 in the Challenger Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Deinze 1.86 xG and Excelsior Virton 1.53 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Deinze fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Deinze attack 1.25 / defence 1.09 against Excelsior Virton attack 1.00 / defence 1.14, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Deinze 46% | Draw 22% | Excelsior Virton 32%, with Deinze to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Deinze 67%, Excelsior Virton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Deinze's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior Virton's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Deinze arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.77. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Deinze (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward. Excelsior Virton (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.