Club Brugge II 0-2 Beerschot VA – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Beerschot VA at 52% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Club Brugge II face Beerschot VA.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Club Brugge II welcome Beerschot VA to The NEST in Challenger Pro League (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Club Brugge II stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Club Brugge II have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Beerschot VA — last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Beerschot VA's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Club Brugge II 1.60 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Club Brugge II, 3 for Beerschot VA and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 14 Apr 2023, ended Club Brugge II 0–4 Beerschot VA — a Beerschot VA win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Club Brugge II trading profile (last 41 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Beerschot VA trading profile (last 41 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Club Brugge II 61% versus Beerschot VA 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Club Brugge II 68% | Beerschot VA 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Club Brugge II 1.30 xG and Beerschot VA 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Club Brugge II attack 1.150 / defence 1.176 | Beerschot VA attack 1.196 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.355. Data: built from Club Brugge II's last 32 games and Beerschot VA's last 31.
Result probabilities: Club Brugge II 26% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 52%. Fair-value odds: Club Brugge II 3.84 | Draw 4.48 | Beerschot VA 1.94. Beerschot VA hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.91) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Beerschot VA as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Beerschot VA offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Club Brugge II's last 10 home games and Beerschot VA's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Club Brugge II 50% (last 10 home games) | Beerschot VA 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA | Competition: Challenger Pro League, matchday 11 | Venue: The NEST • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Club Brugge II 26% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Club Brugge II 1.30 / Beerschot VA 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Club Brugge II attack 1.150 / def 1.176 | Beerschot VA attack 1.196 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.355 • Poisson stance: Beerschot VA (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Club Brugge II xG
Expected Goals
1.91
Beerschot VA xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA FAQs
What time does Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA kick off?
Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at The NEST.
What was the final score in Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA?
Club Brugge II 0 - 2 Beerschot VA.
Where is Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA being played?
The match is being played at The NEST.
What competition is Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA part of?
Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA is a Challenger Pro League fixture (matchday 11) (Belgium).
Who is favourite to win Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA?
Our statistical model gives Club Brugge II a 26% chance of winning, Beerschot VA a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Beerschot VA the favourite.
Will both teams score in Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Club Brugge II's attack rating (1.15) and Beerschot VA's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Beerschot VA's attack versus Club Brugge II's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Club Brugge II's last 32 games and Beerschot VA's last 31 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Beerschot VA Win
26%
3.84
22%
4.48
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Club Brugge II xG
Total xG
3.20
1.91
Beerschot VA xG
3.84
26%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
4%
25.85
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.7 | 7.4 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Club Brugge II and 1.91 for Beerschot VA, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Club Brugge II have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 19W 7D 15L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Beerschot VA's form line: 20W 6D 15L from 41 games, 1.61 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Club Brugge II on 1.56 PPG, Beerschot VA on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Club Brugge II have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 19 home games (11W 4D 4L).
On the road, Beerschot VA have gone 11W 1D 7L from their last 19 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Club Brugge II are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Beerschot VA are on 1.39 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Club Brugge II have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Club Brugge II
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
Club Brugge II (Home) vs Beerschot VA (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Club Brugge II
Blended
Beerschot VA
Blended
❓ Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA Form FAQs
What form are Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA in coming into this match?
Club Brugge II have gone 19W 7D 15L in their last 41 games (1.56 PPG), while Beerschot VA have gone 20W 6D 15L in their last 41 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Club Brugge II at home or Beerschot VA away?
Club Brugge II's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Club Brugge II at home: 1.95 PPG; Beerschot VA away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Challenger Pro League. The most recent was on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Apr 2023, when Beerschot VA won Beerschot VA 4-0 Club Brugge II.
Club Brugge II's record when hosting Beerschot VA specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Club Brugge II
0
Draws
6
Beerschot VA
Recent Meetings
❓ Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Club Brugge II have won 2, Beerschot VA have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 February 2026: Beerschot VA 2-1 Club Brugge II.
Who has won more matches between Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA?
Beerschot VA have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Club Brugge II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Beerschot VA are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Club Brugge II 58%, Beerschot VA 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Club Brugge II and 74% for Beerschot VA. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Club Brugge II keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Beerschot VA in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Club Brugge II home games / Beerschot VA away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Club Brugge II vs Beerschot VA Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Club Brugge II's games and 63% of Beerschot VA's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Club Brugge II's matches and 74% of Beerschot VA's.
Do Club Brugge II and Beerschot VA matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Club Brugge II's recent matches and 84% of Beerschot VA's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Beerschot VA cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Club Brugge II.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Beerschot VA beat Club Brugge II 0-2 at The NEST, Regular Season - 11, in the Challenger Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Club Brugge II 1.30 xG and Beerschot VA 1.91 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Club Brugge II fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Club Brugge II attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against Beerschot VA attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Club Brugge II 26% | Draw 22% | Beerschot VA 52%, with Beerschot VA to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Club Brugge II 68%, Beerschot VA 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Club Brugge II's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Beerschot VA's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Club Brugge II 1.56 PPG, Beerschot VA 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Beerschot VA win broke the near-deadlock. Club Brugge II (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Beerschot VA (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.