WSG Wattens 0-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and SCR Altach meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. WSG Wattens's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 52% versus SCR Altach 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 56% | SCR Altach 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.56 xG and SCR Altach 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.969 / defence 1.268 | SCR Altach attack 0.563 / defence 1.395. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.395 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 53% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 21%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | SCR Altach 4.76. WSG Wattens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is WSG Wattens at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 60% | SCR Altach 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 4 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 53% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG WSG Wattens 1.56 / SCR Altach 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.969 / def 1.268 | SCR Altach attack 0.563 / def 1.395 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
0.88
SCR Altach xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kick off?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 April 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
WSG Wattens 0 - 3 SCR Altach.
Where is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach part of?
WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 53% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 21% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both WSG Wattens and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from WSG Wattens's attack rating (0.97) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.40), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.56x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
53%
1.88
26%
3.92
21%
4.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.44
0.88
SCR Altach xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.68
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
4%
22.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 12.0 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 0.88 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 6W 9D 10L from 25 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 4W 6D 15L across 25 games — 0.72 PPG, with L-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.72 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 2W 7D 3L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 3W 2D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.56 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 6W 9D 10L in their last 25 games (1.08 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 4W 6D 15L in their last 25 (0.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or SCR Altach away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.08 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SCR Altach won 3-0 on 26 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
WSG Wattens
3
Draws
4
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 3, SCR Altach have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when SCR Altach 3-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 67%, SCR Altach 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (WSG Wattens) and 50% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 33% of games; SCR Altach in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 33% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 50% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and SCR Altach tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 0-3 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat WSG Wattens 0-3 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.56 xG and SCR Altach 0.88 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.6 short of their projected output. SCR Altach outscored their 0.88 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 1.27 against SCR Altach attack 0.56 / defence 1.40, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 53% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 21%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 56%, SCR Altach 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.08 PPG, SCR Altach 0.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.