WSG Wattens 1-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 35%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 6). Kick-off is Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 1D 6L in their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Austria Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Austria Vienna are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the 3 H2H matches we hold against 0 for WSG Wattens. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2024, ended WSG Wattens 0–3 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 59 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 54% versus Austria Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 52% | Austria Vienna 61%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: WSG Wattens surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Austria Vienna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.848 / defence 1.203 | Austria Vienna attack 0.997 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. WSG Wattens's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Austria Vienna's projected output up. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.85 | Draw 3.32 | Austria Vienna 2.87. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 35% to win, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — WSG Wattens 35% and Austria Vienna 35%, with the draw at 30%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 6 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Tuesday 23 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.22 / Austria Vienna 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.848 / def 1.203 | Austria Vienna attack 0.997 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna level at 35% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Tuesday 23 April 2024 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
WSG Wattens 1 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 6) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 35% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.85x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 44 games and Austria Vienna's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
35%
2.85
30%
3.32
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.44
1.22
Austria Vienna xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
30%
3.37
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
10%
9.63
10%
9.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 10.6 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.22 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 16W 12D 31L from 59 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 23W 19D 17L across 59 games — 1.49 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 7W 8D 14L from their last 29 home games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 9W 9D 11L across their last 29 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.54 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 59 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 16W 12D 31L in their last 59 games (1.02 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 23W 19D 17L in their last 59 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.00 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.24 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 30% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 59%, Austria Vienna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (WSG Wattens) and 59% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of WSG Wattens's games and 62% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 59% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 83% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as WSG Wattens edge out Austria Vienna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Austria Vienna 1-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.22 xG and Austria Vienna 1.22 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.85 / defence 1.20 against Austria Vienna attack 1.00 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 35% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 35%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 52%, Austria Vienna 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 1.02. Form was overturned, with WSG Wattens winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.