Wolfsberger AC 0-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz meet at Lavanttal Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 3 April 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal Arena: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 54% and Sturm Graz 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 67% | Sturm Graz 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.55 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.083 / defence 1.006 | Sturm Graz attack 1.078 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.237. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Wolfsberger AC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Wolfsberger AC games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 33%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.38 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Wolfsberger AC at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 50% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 3 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Apr 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.55 / Sturm Graz 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.083 / def 1.006 | Sturm Graz attack 1.078 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 3 April 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 42% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.08x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
42%
2.37
25%
4.05
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.89
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
2.37
42%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
11%
9.05
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.9 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.34 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 11W 4D 9L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 11W 7D 6L from 24 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.67 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.83 PPG from 12 outings (7W 1D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 3D 4L from 12 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.04 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz in 67%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 11W 4D 9L in their last 24 games (1.54 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 11W 7D 6L in their last 24 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Sturm Graz away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.83 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 58%, Sturm Graz 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Wolfsberger AC and 75% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 67% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 75% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Championship Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.55 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Sturm Graz attack 1.08 / defence 1.24, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 42% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 33%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 73% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 67%, Sturm Graz 79%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.54 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.