Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz meet at Lavanttal-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Wolfsberger AC have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's home record at Lavanttal-Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 9 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 3 for Sturm Graz and 3 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Oct 2025, ended 3–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 64% and Sturm Graz 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 62% | Sturm Graz 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.052 / defence 1.064 | Sturm Graz attack 1.074 / defence 0.969. League average goals — home 1.317 / away 1.169. Data: 42 Wolfsberger AC games / 42 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.70. The draw (26%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 26% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 60% | Sturm Graz 40%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.34 / Sturm Graz 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.052 / def 1.064 | Sturm Graz attack 1.074 / def 0.969 | league avg home 1.317 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Draw (26%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Wolfsberger AC 2 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 37% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
Record (9 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 3 | Sturm Graz 3W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.07x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
37%
2.69
26%
3.86
37%
2.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.68
1.34
Sturm Graz xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.71
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
10.23
10%
10.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.3 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.34 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Wolfsberger AC have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 23W 11D 18L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz's form line: 30W 7D 15L from 52 games, 1.87 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Wolfsberger AC against 1.87 for Sturm Graz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Wolfsberger AC have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (12W 5D 9L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 15W 3D 8L from 26 away games — 1.85 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.83 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 52 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 23W 11D 18L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 30W 7D 15L in their last 52 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.58 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.85 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
4
Draws
3
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Sturm Graz have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 65%, Sturm Graz 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Wolfsberger AC and 62% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 58% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC and Sturm Graz finished level at 2-2 at Lavanttal-Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.34 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.05 / defence 1.06 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.97, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 37% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 37%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 62%, Sturm Graz 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.54 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.87 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.