Wolfsberger AC 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg make the trip to Lavanttal Arena to face Wolfsberger AC in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 25 September 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Wolfsberger AC (all games): 2W 3D 3L across 8 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.62 goals per game, with 2.12 conceded. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 1D 2L this season (4 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 0D 0L from 8 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.62 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets from 8 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.88 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC in recent Bundesliga fixtures (3.00 vs 1.12). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Wolfsberger AC — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (8 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 75% and Red Bull Salzburg 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Wolfsberger AC 88% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.07 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.039 / defence 1.435 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.095 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.271. Data: 8 Wolfsberger AC games / 8 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 17% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 5.88 | Draw 3.70 | Red Bull Salzburg 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.07 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolfsberger AC 75% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Sep 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 17% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.07 / Red Bull Salzburg 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 1.039 / def 1.435 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.095 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Red Bull Salzburg xG
60%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 25 September 2021 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Wolfsberger AC 0 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 17% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 56% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.62 / GA 2.12 | L5 D-W-W-L-D. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-0D-0L in 8 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.62 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Wolfsberger AC's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.09x) against Wolfsberger AC's defence (1.44x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
17%
5.96
27%
3.66
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.07
2.00
Red Bull Salzburg xG
5.96
17%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
14%
7.37
34%
2.91
Win to Nil
2%
43.90
19%
5.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 2.00 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Wolfsberger AC come into this having played 8 games, going 2W 3D 3L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 3.00 PPG from 8 outings (8W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.88 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Wolfsberger AC's home form reads 1W 1D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 3.00 points per game from 4 outings (4W 0D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.62 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 games (1.12 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 8W 0D 0L in their last 8 (3.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.00 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Wolfsberger AC or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolfsberger AC have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Wolfsberger AC
3
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 2, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 75%, Red Bull Salzburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Wolfsberger AC and 50% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 75% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 50% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Wolfsberger AC 0-2 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.07 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 2.00 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Wolfsberger AC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 1.04 / defence 1.44 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 17% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 88%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (8 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (8 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.