TSV Hartberg 2-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach meet at PROfertil ARENA in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 2D 6L at PROfertil ARENA — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. TSV Hartberg's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of SCR Altach's 0.60 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 57% versus SCR Altach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 54% | SCR Altach 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.88 xG and SCR Altach 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.071 / defence 1.170 | SCR Altach attack 0.790 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 25%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 4.00. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.88 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | SCR Altach 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 60% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.88 / SCR Altach 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.071 / def 1.170 | SCR Altach attack 0.790 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.23
SCR Altach xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach part of?
TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 52% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (1.07) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.79x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.43
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.11
1.23
SCR Altach xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
15%
6.53
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
4%
26.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.23 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 56 games, going 13W 15D 28L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 0.88 PPG from 56 outings (12W 13D 31L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.96 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 0.88 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 8D 14L across 28 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 0.89 points per game from 28 outings (7W 4D 17L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.84 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 15D 28L in their last 56 games (0.96 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 13D 31L in their last 56 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or SCR Altach away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.93 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, SCR Altach have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 64%, SCR Altach 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for TSV Hartberg and 68% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 29% of games; SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 39% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 68% of SCR Altach's.
Do TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg and SCR Altach finished level at 2-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.88 xG and SCR Altach 1.23 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.07 / defence 1.17 against SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.27, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 52% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 25%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 54%, SCR Altach 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 0.96 PPG, SCR Altach 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.