TSV Hartberg 1-5 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 4 as TSV Hartberg welcome Red Bull Salzburg to PROfertil ARENA. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Red Bull Salzburg have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Red Bull Salzburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 road games this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Data
TSV Hartberg trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 54% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.100 / defence 1.146 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.225 / defence 0.839. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 1.203. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.225 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 TSV Hartberg games / 25 Red Bull Salzburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.13. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: TSV Hartberg 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.21 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.100 / def 1.146 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.225 / def 0.839 | league avg home 1.306 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.69
Red Bull Salzburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
TSV Hartberg 1 - 5 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 26% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 1.10x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
26%
3.90
27%
3.67
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.90
1.69
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.90
26%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
18%
5.41
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
5%
21.09
14%
7.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.3 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.3 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.69 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 35 games, going 10W 8D 17L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Red Bull Salzburg sit at 2.46 PPG from 35 outings (26W 8D 1L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.37 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 5W 4D 8L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Red Bull Salzburg have taken 2.59 points per game from 17 outings (14W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.11 scored and 0.63 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Red Bull Salzburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 8D 17L in their last 35 games (1.09 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 26W 8D 1L in their last 35 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.12 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.59 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 59%, Red Bull Salzburg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (TSV Hartberg) and 53% (Red Bull Salzburg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 47% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 53% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 1-5 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 1-5 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.69 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.10 / defence 1.15 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.23 / defence 0.84, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 60%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.35 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.