TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Hartberg — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 9W 0D 1L from 10 outings — 2.70 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rapid Vienna's 2.70 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of TSV Hartberg's 1.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 4 for Rapid Vienna and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2026, ended 1–3 with Rapid Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Rapid Vienna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | Rapid Vienna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.65 xG and Rapid Vienna 2.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.095 / defence 1.333 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.240 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 2.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 TSV Hartberg games / 31 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | Rapid Vienna 2.13. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 3.81. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.81 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 2.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 28% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 74% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.65 / Rapid Vienna 2.16 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.095 / def 1.333 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.240 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
2.16
Rapid Vienna xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadion Hartberg.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 28% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
Record (10 meetings): TSV Hartberg 4W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 2.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
28%
3.60
25%
4.04
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.81
2.16
Rapid Vienna xG
3.60
28%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.36
26%
BTTS No
3.78
Clean Sheet
12%
8.64
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
3%
31.09
9%
11.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 7.9 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 3.3 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 2.16 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 3.81.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 41 games, going 13W 14D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-L. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rapid Vienna sit at 1.59 PPG from 41 outings (19W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.29 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 6W 6D 8L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Rapid Vienna have taken 1.35 points per game from 20 outings (7W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.54 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 14D 14L in their last 41 games (1.29 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 8D 14L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.20 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.35 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
TSV Hartberg
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2026, when Rapid Vienna 3-1 TSV Hartberg.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 60%, Rapid Vienna 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (TSV Hartberg) and 45% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of TSV Hartberg's games and 60% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 45% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.