Sturm Graz 0-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC meet at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz at Merkur Arena this season: 4W 1D 1L from 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Wolfsberger AC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 67%.
Wolfsberger AC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 75% and Wolfsberger AC 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 83% | Wolfsberger AC 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.80 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.168 / defence 1.010 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.864 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.395. Wolfsberger AC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Sturm Graz games / 12 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 24%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Wolfsberger AC 4.17. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 67% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Sturm Graz 1.80 / Wolfsberger AC 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.168 / def 1.010 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.864 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Wolfsberger AC xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Sturm Graz 0 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.86x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.75
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.02
1.22
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
15%
6.85
4%
25.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 10.7 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.8 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.22 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 2D 3L for 1.92 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.50 PPG from 12 outings (5W 3D 4L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sturm Graz's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.92 PPG overall — Sturm Graz are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.42 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 7W 2D 3L in their last 12 games (1.92 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 3D 4L in their last 12 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.60 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 4-0 on 3 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 3, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Wolfsberger AC 2-2 Sturm Graz.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 60%, Wolfsberger AC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Sturm Graz and 60% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Sturm Graz's games and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Sturm Graz's matches and 60% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Sturm Graz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Wolfsberger AC run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat Sturm Graz 0-3 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.80 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.22 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.22 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.17 / defence 1.01 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 27% | Wolfsberger AC 24%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Wolfsberger AC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 83%, Wolfsberger AC 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.50. Form was overturned, with Wolfsberger AC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.