Sturm Graz 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 71%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 September 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 2L at Merkur Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Sturm Graz are significantly better at Merkur Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Sturm Graz) versus 1.40 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 68% and TSV Hartberg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 70% | TSV Hartberg 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.35 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.129 / defence 0.750 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.815 / defence 1.298. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.404. TSV Hartberg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.298 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.750 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Sturm Graz games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 71% | Draw 17% | TSV Hartberg 12%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.41 | Draw 5.88 | TSV Hartberg 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 71% — clear model lean.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | TSV Hartberg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 71% | Draw 17% | TSV Hartberg 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 52% | xG Sturm Graz 2.35 / TSV Hartberg 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.129 / def 0.750 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.815 / def 1.298 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.35
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.86
TSV Hartberg xG
52%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 71% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 12% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.13x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.35 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
71%
1.42
17%
5.75
12%
8.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.35
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.20
0.86
TSV Hartberg xG
1.42
71%
Home win
5.75
17%
Draw
8.32
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
10%
10.44
Win to Nil
30%
3.34
1%
86.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.5 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.35 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.86 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 19W 10D 8L from 37 games, a 1.81 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 9W 12D 16L across 37 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-L-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.76 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 11W 4D 3L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 4W 6D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.32 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 games (1.81 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 12D 16L in their last 37 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.06 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when TSV Hartberg 2-4 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 61%, TSV Hartberg 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Sturm Graz and 56% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Sturm Graz's games and 61% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Sturm Graz's matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sturm Graz's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg finished level at 0-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 2.35 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.86 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 2.3 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.13 / defence 0.75 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 71% | Draw 17% | TSV Hartberg 12%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 71%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 70%, TSV Hartberg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.72 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.