Sturm Graz 3-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees SCR Altach travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 7 August 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 1W 0D 1L from 2 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.50 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.22 xG and SCR Altach 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.916 / defence 1.318 | SCR Altach attack 0.912 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.205 / away 1.511. Data: 2 Sturm Graz games / 2 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 23% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 48%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 4.35 | Draw 3.45 | SCR Altach 2.08. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 23% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Sturm Graz 1.22 / SCR Altach 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.916 / def 1.318 | SCR Altach attack 0.912 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.205 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SCR Altach xG
62%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 7 August 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 3 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 23% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 48% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (0.92) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.22 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
23%
4.44
29%
3.40
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.04
1.82
SCR Altach xG
4.44
23%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
16%
6.15
29%
3.40
Win to Nil
4%
27.27
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.7 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.5 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.82 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 1W 0D 1L from 2 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 1L across 2 games — 1.50 PPG, with L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sturm Graz on 1.50 PPG, SCR Altach on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sturm Graz's scoring rate against SCR Altach's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 2 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 (1.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sturm Graz's games and 50% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sturm Graz's matches and 50% of SCR Altach's.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 3-1 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.22 xG and SCR Altach 1.82 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.92 / defence 1.32 against SCR Altach attack 0.91 / defence 1.11, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 23% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 48%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Sturm Graz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 100%, SCR Altach 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sturm Graz 1.50 PPG, SCR Altach 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sturm Graz win broke the near-deadlock. Sturm Graz conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.