Sturm Graz 3-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 2 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for Sturm Graz against 1.90 for Rapid Vienna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 63% and Rapid Vienna 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 63% | Rapid Vienna 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.47 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.113 / defence 0.871 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.921 / defence 0.956. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.334. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 28%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 3.57. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 50% | Rapid Vienna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Sturm Graz 1.47 / Rapid Vienna 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.113 / def 0.871 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.921 / def 0.956 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Rapid Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 2 April 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz 3 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 46% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.11x the league average against Rapid Vienna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.92x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.83
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.54
1.07
Rapid Vienna xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
16%
6.30
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.4 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.07 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 30W 14D 10L from 54 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 19L across 54 games — 1.46 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 17W 5D 5L from 27 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rapid Vienna's away record stands at 9W 8D 10L across 27 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.57 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Rapid Vienna in 63%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 30W 14D 10L in their last 54 games (1.93 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 22W 13D 19L in their last 54 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.07 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 5, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Sturm Graz, 70% for Rapid Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 74% for Sturm Graz and 56% for Rapid Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Sturm Graz's games and 70% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Sturm Graz's matches and 56% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 3-1 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.47 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.07 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.11 / defence 0.87 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 46% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 28%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 63%, Rapid Vienna 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.46. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.