Sturm Graz 2-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 3W 0D 1L across 4 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.25 PPG. Last five: L W W W. They are averaging 2.75 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna have collected 0.50 PPG across 4 Bundesliga outings this season: 0W 2D 2L. Last five: L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 1.25 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 1.75 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.25 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using overall form) — Sturm Graz register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant games, Austria Vienna in 75%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 75% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (4 games): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 100% and Austria Vienna 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 100% | Austria Vienna 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.137 / defence 1.302 | Austria Vienna attack 0.691 / defence 1.059. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.288. Data: 4 Sturm Graz games / 4 Austria Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Austria Vienna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 100% | Austria Vienna 75% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (4 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Sturm Graz 1.54 / Austria Vienna 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.137 / def 1.302 | Austria Vienna attack 0.691 / def 1.059 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.288 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Austria Vienna xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 August 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 2 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 43% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 25% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-0D-1L in 4 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.75 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.14x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.54 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.69x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
The sample (4/4 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
43%
2.35
32%
3.08
25%
4.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.70
1.16
Austria Vienna xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.00
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
21%
4.67
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
5%
18.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.16 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 3W 0D 1L from 4 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with L-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 0W 2D 2L across 4 games — 0.50 PPG, with L-D-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Vienna heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.75 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 0.75 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 75%.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 3W 0D 1L in their last 4 games (2.25 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 75% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Sturm Graz, 75% for Austria Vienna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sturm Graz and 25% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sturm Graz's games and 75% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sturm Graz's matches and 25% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna finished level at 2-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.54 xG and Austria Vienna 1.16 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 1.30 against Austria Vienna attack 0.69 / defence 1.06, drawn from 4/4 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 43% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 25%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 100%, Austria Vienna 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 88%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Austria Vienna scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.