Sturm Graz 3-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5. The match kicks off on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Sturm Graz (all games): 7W 0D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's home record at Merkur Arena: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D D D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 0.60 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.10 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Austria Vienna in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 68% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 62% and Austria Vienna 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 62% | Austria Vienna 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.64 xG and Austria Vienna 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.105 / defence 0.888 | Austria Vienna attack 1.037 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 47% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Vienna 3.45. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 47% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Sturm Graz 1.64 / Austria Vienna 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.105 / def 0.888 | Austria Vienna attack 1.037 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Austria Vienna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 26 April 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Sturm Graz 3 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 47% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.10x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.64 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.04x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
47%
2.13
24%
4.11
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.87
1.23
Austria Vienna xG
2.13
47%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
6%
18.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.23 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 32W 14D 12L from 58 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 21W 21D 16L across 58 games — 1.45 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 18W 5D 6L from 29 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 9W 11D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.81 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.55 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 66%.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 32W 14D 12L in their last 58 games (1.90 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 21W 21D 16L in their last 58 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.03 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 0-3 on 30 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
5
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 62%, Austria Vienna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Sturm Graz and 59% for Austria Vienna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 34% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 62% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Sturm Graz's matches and 59% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Austria Vienna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Vienna 3-2 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.64 xG and Austria Vienna 1.23 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.10 / defence 0.89 against Austria Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 47% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 29%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 62%, Austria Vienna 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.45. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.90 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.