SCR Altach 3-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Wolfsberger AC travel to Cashpoint Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 12:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Cashpoint Arena, SCR Altach have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint Arena than their overall form suggests.
Wolfsberger AC — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.10 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SCR Altach register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for SCR Altach, 3 for Wolfsberger AC and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2026, ended 1–4 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 46% versus Wolfsberger AC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Wolfsberger AC 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.86 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.942 / defence 1.125 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.860 / defence 1.153. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.206. Data: 29 SCR Altach games / 29 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 21%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Wolfsberger AC 4.76. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.86 / 1.17) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.03 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 70% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Cashpoint Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 51% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG SCR Altach 1.86 / Wolfsberger AC 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.942 / def 1.125 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.860 / def 1.153 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Wolfsberger AC xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Cashpoint Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach 3 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 51% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 3W | Draws 3 | Wolfsberger AC 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.94x the league average against Wolfsberger AC's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.86 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
51%
1.97
28%
3.55
21%
4.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
3.03
1.17
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
4.78
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
16%
6.45
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
3%
30.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 10.5 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.17 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 12D 16L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.18 PPG from 39 outings (12W 10D 17L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 1.15 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.15 PPG overall — SCR Altach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 0.79 points per game from 19 outings (4W 3D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SCR Altach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.26 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 11W 12D 16L in their last 39 games (1.15 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 17L in their last 39 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
SCR Altach's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.74 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 May 2026, when Wolfsberger AC won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
SCR Altach
3
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when SCR Altach 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SCR Altach at 63%, Wolfsberger AC at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (SCR Altach) and 68% (Wolfsberger AC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of SCR Altach's games and 68% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of SCR Altach's matches and 68% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do SCR Altach and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SCR Altach run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Wolfsberger AC 3-0 at Cashpoint Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.86 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.17 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 51% | Draw 28% | Wolfsberger AC 21%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Wolfsberger AC 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 1.15 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.