SCR Altach 0-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as SCR Altach take on TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 23 February 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
SCR Altach's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L at CASHPOINT Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
TSV Hartberg arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to TSV Hartberg, who have claimed 3 wins from 4 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 0–2 with TSV Hartberg winning.
It is worth noting that TSV Hartberg have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
SCR Altach — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 50% versus TSV Hartberg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | TSV Hartberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.12 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.812 / defence 1.092 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.896 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.222. Data: 40 SCR Altach games / 40 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 35%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | TSV Hartberg 2.86. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.32 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 70% | TSV Hartberg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 50% | xG SCR Altach 1.12 / TSV Hartberg 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.812 / def 1.092 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.896 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.222 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.20
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
SCR Altach 0 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg part of?
SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 31% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 35% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
Record (4 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SCR Altach's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.90x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.25
35%
2.88
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.32
1.20
TSV Hartberg xG
3.25
31%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
9%
10.75
11%
8.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 11.8 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.20 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 9W 17D 24L record — L-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 17W 14D 19L from 50 games, 1.30 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, TSV Hartberg are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.88 PPG from 25 outings (4W 10D 11L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 7D 10L from 25 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SCR Altach are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.32 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 17W 14D 19L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or TSV Hartberg away?
TSV Hartberg's away record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.88 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 0W 3D 3L from 6 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when SCR Altach 1-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 52%, TSV Hartberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SCR Altach) and 64% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SCR Altach's recent games and 64% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SCR Altach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 19, as SCR Altach and TSV Hartberg drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.12 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.20 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 1.1 short of their projected output. TSV Hartberg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 1.09 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.90 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 31% | Draw 35% | TSV Hartberg 35%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, TSV Hartberg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, TSV Hartberg arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.