SCR Altach 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as SCR Altach face Sturm Graz.

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Fixture Analysis

SCR Altach welcome Sturm Graz to CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 15). Kick-off is Saturday 30 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, SCR Altach stand at 0W 3D 7L — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.

At home, SCR Altach have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Sturm Graz have recorded 7W 2D 1L — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 2.00 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of SCR Altach's games and 80% of Sturm Graz's (from SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Sturm Graz's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Sturm Graz have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against 0 for SCR Altach.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 24 Aug 2024, ended SCR Altach 1–2 Sturm Graz — a Sturm Graz win.

Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Profile

SCR Altach in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Sturm Graz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | Sturm Graz 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SCR Altach surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Sturm Graz have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 60% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.02 xG and Sturm Graz 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.797 / defence 1.135 | Sturm Graz attack 1.293 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.066. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Sturm Graz have an above-average attack rating of 1.293, which lifts their away xG to 1.56. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 36 games and Sturm Graz's last 36.

Result probabilities: SCR Altach 24% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 50%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 4.11 | Draw 3.86 | Sturm Graz 2.01. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 52% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 80% (last 10 away games).

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