SCR Altach 0-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and Lask Linz meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 16 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 0.80 PPG clear of SCR Altach in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 58% of games.
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 35% versus Lask Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 46% | Lask Linz 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.81 xG and Lask Linz 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.603 / defence 1.365 | Lask Linz attack 0.970 / defence 1.171. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.237. SCR Altach's attack strength of 0.603 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 SCR Altach games / 22 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 18% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 57%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 5.56 | Draw 4.00 | Lask Linz 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Lask Linz (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 30% | Lask Linz 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 18% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 45% | xG SCR Altach 0.81 / Lask Linz 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.603 / def 1.365 | Lask Linz attack 0.970 / def 1.171 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Lask Linz xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
SCR Altach 0 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 18% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 57% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SCR Altach and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.60) and Lask Linz's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.97x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.6%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
18%
5.42
25%
4.08
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.45
1.64
Lask Linz xG
5.42
18%
Home win
4.08
25%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
19%
5.15
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
4%
27.93
25%
3.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 14.1 | 11.6 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.64 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 26 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 5W 6D 15L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 7W 9D 10L from 26 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.81 PPG for SCR Altach against 1.15 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.54 PPG from 13 outings (1W 4D 8L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 3W 5D 5L from 13 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.35 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 5W 6D 15L in their last 26 games (0.81 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 7W 9D 10L in their last 26 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.54 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SCR Altach
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 38%, Lask Linz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 46% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 62% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 62% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 46% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Lask Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SCR Altach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 5, as SCR Altach and Lask Linz drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.81 xG and Lask Linz 1.64 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SCR Altach fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Lask Linz landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.60 / defence 1.36 against Lask Linz attack 0.97 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 18% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 57%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 46%, Lask Linz 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 58% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lask Linz's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.81 PPG, Lask Linz 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.