SCR Altach 1-2 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SCR Altach vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SCR Altach and Lask Linz meet at CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lask Linz are 0.50 PPG clear of SCR Altach in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.10 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SCR Altach lead 1W to 3W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
SCR Altach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lask Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Lask Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 41% | Lask Linz 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.809 / defence 1.058 | Lask Linz attack 1.072 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.116. Data: 34 SCR Altach games / 34 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 39%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.23 | Draw 3.45 | Lask Linz 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 50% | Lask Linz 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG SCR Altach 1.10 / Lask Linz 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.809 / def 1.058 | Lask Linz attack 1.072 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Lask Linz xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kick off?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
SCR Altach 1 - 2 Lask Linz.
Where is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz part of?
SCR Altach vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 31% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SCR Altach and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Record (5 meetings): SCR Altach 1W | Draws 1 | Lask Linz 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.81) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.07x) against SCR Altach's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
31%
3.19
29%
3.42
39%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.36
1.27
Lask Linz xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.53
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.2 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.27 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 44 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 8W 16D 20L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz's form line: 18W 12D 14L from 44 games, 1.50 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-D. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lask Linz are the form team by 0.59 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.00 PPG from 21 outings (4W 9D 8L).
On the road, Lask Linz have gone 7W 7D 7L from 21 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 16D 20L in their last 44 games (0.91 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 18W 12D 14L in their last 44 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.00 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SCR Altach have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SCR Altach
2
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 2, Lask Linz have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, Lask Linz 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 43% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 38% of games; Lask Linz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Lask Linz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 52% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 43% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Lask Linz tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out SCR Altach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat SCR Altach 1-2 at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.10 xG and Lask Linz 1.27 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 31% | Draw 29% | Lask Linz 39%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 41%, Lask Linz 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. SCR Altach (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.