SCR Altach 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 44%, yet in-form Austria Vienna provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Austria Vienna travel to CASHPOINT Arena to take on SCR Altach. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach at CASHPOINT Arena this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Austria Vienna have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Austria Vienna — 0.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 2, Austria Vienna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
SCR Altach trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Austria Vienna trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 47% versus Austria Vienna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Austria Vienna 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.30 xG and Austria Vienna 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.874 / defence 0.970 | Austria Vienna attack 0.897 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.705 / away 1.059. Data: 26 SCR Altach games / 26 Austria Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 44% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Austria Vienna (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: SCR Altach 60% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 44% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG SCR Altach 1.30 / Austria Vienna 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.874 / def 0.970 | Austria Vienna attack 0.897 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.705 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Austria Vienna xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 44% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Record (6 meetings): SCR Altach 2W | Draws 2 | Austria Vienna 2W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SCR Altach's attack rating (0.87) and Austria Vienna's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/26 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.33
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.23
0.92
Austria Vienna xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 10.0 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.92 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SCR Altach come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 13D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.64 PPG from 36 outings (16W 11D 9L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Austria Vienna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
SCR Altach's home form reads 4W 7D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.33 points per game from 18 outings (7W 3D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
SCR Altach are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.22 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 8W 13D 15L in their last 36 games (1.03 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 11D 9L in their last 36 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.06 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
3
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when SCR Altach 2-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 44%, Austria Vienna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (SCR Altach) and 39% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SCR Altach have failed to score in 39% of games; Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 44% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of SCR Altach's recent games and 39% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 5, as SCR Altach and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.30 xG and Austria Vienna 0.92 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.87 / defence 0.97 against Austria Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 0.88, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 44% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 25%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Austria Vienna 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.