Ried 2-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Ried host Sturm Graz at josko ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Ried have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ried's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at josko ARENA this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ried are significantly better at josko ARENA than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Ried at 1.50 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Ried, 1 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Ried in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ried 76% and Sturm Graz 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ried 62% | Sturm Graz 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.62 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 1.145 / defence 1.238 | Sturm Graz attack 1.062 / defence 1.215. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.294. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.215 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Ried games / 21 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 35% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 39%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Sturm Graz 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.32. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.32 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.62 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.32 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Ried 80% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 35% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 67% | xG Ried 1.62 / Sturm Graz 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 1.145 / def 1.238 | Sturm Graz attack 1.062 / def 1.215 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.294 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Sturm Graz xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Ried vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Ried 2 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Ried vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs Sturm Graz part of?
Ried vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Ried and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Ried and Sturm Graz in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Ried's attack at 1.15x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Ried's defence, projects 1.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.84
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Ried xG
Total xG
3.32
1.70
Sturm Graz xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.04
Clean Sheet
18%
5.48
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
6%
15.55
8%
13.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Ried and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Ried and 1.70 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ried's recent record stands at 7W 7D 7L from 21 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 10W 6D 5L across 21 games — 1.71 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ried on 1.33 PPG, Sturm Graz on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Ried have managed 6W 4D 0L from 10 games — 2.20 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 5W 2D 3L across 10 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ried are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.10 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 76% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 67%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 7W 7D 7L in their last 21 games (1.33 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or Sturm Graz away?
Ried's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 2.20 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ried and Sturm Graz runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Ried's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ried
2
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and Sturm Graz?
From 6 meetings on record, Ried have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sturm Graz 1-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 70% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Ried at 80%, Sturm Graz at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Ried and 80% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Ried's games and 70% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Ried's matches and 80% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Ried and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ried and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 22, as Ried and Sturm Graz drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.62 xG and Sturm Graz 1.70 xG, a combined 3.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 1.15 / defence 1.24 against Sturm Graz attack 1.06 / defence 1.22, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 35% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 39%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 62%, Sturm Graz 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 76% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.33 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.