Ried 2-3 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 2 October 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at josko ARENA, Ried have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Ried 0W, SCR Altach 1W, 1D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 63% versus SCR Altach 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 46% | SCR Altach 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.58 xG and SCR Altach 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.860 / defence 0.975 | SCR Altach attack 0.644 / defence 1.337. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.620. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.337 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Ried games / 31 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 47% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 21%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.13 | Draw 3.12 | SCR Altach 4.76. Ried hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 70% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 47% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Ried 1.58 / SCR Altach 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.860 / def 0.975 | SCR Altach attack 0.644 / def 1.337 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.620 • Poisson stance: Ried (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.02
SCR Altach xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Ried 2 - 3 SCR Altach.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 47% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 21% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
Record (2 meetings): Ried 0W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 1W.
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.86x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.34x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.64x) against Ried's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
47%
2.13
32%
3.11
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Ried xG
Total xG
2.60
1.02
SCR Altach xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
4%
23.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Ried and 1.02 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 9W 15D 17L from 41 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 23L across 41 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Ried against 0.83 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 7W 9D 4L from 20 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.02 PPG overall — Ried are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 3D 12L across 20 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.80 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 9W 15D 17L in their last 41 games (1.02 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 10D 23L in their last 41 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.50 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
2
Draws
5
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 75%, SCR Altach 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Ried and 65% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Ried's games and 35% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Ried's matches and 65% of SCR Altach's.
Do Ried and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Ried 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Ried 2-3 at josko ARENA, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.58 xG and SCR Altach 1.02 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.86 / defence 0.97 against SCR Altach attack 0.64 / defence 1.34, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 47% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 21%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, SCR Altach 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.02 PPG, SCR Altach 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.