Ried 3-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ried at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Innviertel Arena plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25. Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Innviertel Arena, Ried have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SCR Altach (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ried have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, SCR Altach in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 8 meetings: Ried 2W, SCR Altach 4W, 2D.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 54% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 50% | SCR Altach 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.07 xG and SCR Altach 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.789 / defence 1.072 | SCR Altach attack 0.787 / defence 1.007. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Ried's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Ried games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | SCR Altach 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ried 30% | SCR Altach 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Group - 25 | Venue: Innviertel Arena • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Ried 1.07 / SCR Altach 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.789 / def 1.072 | SCR Altach attack 0.787 / def 1.007 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Ried (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Ried xG
Expected Goals
0.97
SCR Altach xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Innviertel Arena.
What was the final score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Ried 3 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Innviertel Arena.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Group - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 37% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
Record (8 meetings): Ried 2W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 4W.
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in?
Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. SCR Altach (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.79x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.79x) against Ried's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.12
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Ried xG
Total xG
2.04
0.97
SCR Altach xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
38%
2.63
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
11%
9.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Ried and 0.97 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 9W 4D 11L from 24 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 7L across 24 games — 1.38 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Ried against 1.38 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 5W 3D 4L from 12 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 2W 4D 6L across 12 trips, a 0.83 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SCR Altach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ried come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.08 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 9W 4D 11L in their last 24 games (1.29 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 9D 7L in their last 24 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.50 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
2
Draws
5
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 42% (Ried) and 25% (SCR Altach) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ried) and 33% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Ried keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; SCR Altach in 33%; Ried have failed to score in 33% of games; SCR Altach in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ried's recent matches and 25% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ried vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ried's recent games and 33% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ried and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ried edge out SCR Altach 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ried beat SCR Altach 3-2 at Innviertel Arena, Relegation Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.07 xG and SCR Altach 0.97 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Ried beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against SCR Altach attack 0.79 / defence 1.01, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 37% | Draw 32% | SCR Altach 31%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 50%, SCR Altach 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
SCR Altach's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 1.29 PPG, SCR Altach 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.