Ried 0-1 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Ried at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ried vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
josko ARENA plays host to Ried versus SCR Altach in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8. Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Current Form
Ried's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at josko ARENA, Ried have gone 1W 5D 4L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SCR Altach (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: D D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Ried 1W, SCR Altach 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ried 64% versus SCR Altach 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ried 46% | SCR Altach 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ried 1.35 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ried attack 0.800 / defence 1.000 | SCR Altach attack 0.824 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.338. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Ried's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Ried games / 44 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ried 42% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 30%. Fair-value odds: Ried 2.38 | Draw 3.70 | SCR Altach 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ried as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ried if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Ried 70% | SCR Altach 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ried vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 8 | Venue: josko ARENA • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ried 42% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Ried 1.35 / SCR Altach 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Ried attack 0.800 / def 1.000 | SCR Altach attack 0.824 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.338 • Poisson stance: Ried (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Ried xG
Expected Goals
1.10
SCR Altach xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ried vs SCR Altach kick off?
Ried vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 19 May 2023 at josko ARENA.
What was the final score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Ried 0 - 1 SCR Altach.
Where is Ried vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at josko ARENA.
What competition is Ried vs SCR Altach part of?
Ried vs SCR Altach is a Relegation Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Ried a 42% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ried the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ried and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Ried vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
Record (5 meetings): Ried 1W | Draws 2 | SCR Altach 2W.
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in?
Ried (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-D-D-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ried's attack at 0.80x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.82x) against Ried's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ried Win
42%
2.35
27%
3.70
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Ried xG
Total xG
2.46
1.10
SCR Altach xG
2.35
42%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.02
50%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
14%
7.09
8%
12.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.8 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Ried and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Ried and 1.10 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Ried vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ried's recent record stands at 12W 24D 25L from 61 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-D in the last five.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 12W 16D 33L across 61 games — 0.85 PPG, with D-D-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Ried against 0.85 for SCR Altach. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ried have managed 8W 14D 8L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 7W 6D 17L across 30 trips, a 0.90 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ried are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.82 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Ried have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ried
Current Season
SCR Altach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ried and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Ried have gone 12W 24D 25L in their last 61 games (0.98 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 12W 16D 33L in their last 61 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ried at home or SCR Altach away?
Ried's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ried at home: 1.27 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ried won 3-0 on 13 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ried have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Ried
2
Draws
5
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ried and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Ried have won 3, SCR Altach have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ried and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when SCR Altach 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between Ried and SCR Altach?
SCR Altach have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ried 73%, SCR Altach 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Ried and 67% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ried home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ried play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Ried's games and 40% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ried vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Ried's matches and 67% of SCR Altach's.
Do Ried and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Ried have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Ried 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Ried 0-1 at josko ARENA, Relegation Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ried 1.35 xG and SCR Altach 1.10 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ried fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ried attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against SCR Altach attack 0.82 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ried 42% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 30%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ried 46%, SCR Altach 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ried's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SCR Altach's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ried 0.98 PPG, SCR Altach 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. Ried (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward. SCR Altach (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.