Rapid Vienna 5-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host TSV Hartberg at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 26 October 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Stadion, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
TSV Hartberg — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Rapid Vienna at 0.80 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rapid Vienna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Rapid Vienna trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 66% and TSV Hartberg 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 57% | TSV Hartberg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.05 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 0.772 / defence 0.929 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.718 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.784. Rapid Vienna's attack strength of 0.772 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Rapid Vienna games / 34 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 38%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates TSV Hartberg as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. This conflicts with form data: Rapid Vienna 60% | TSV Hartberg 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 26 Oct 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.05 / TSV Hartberg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 0.772 / def 0.929 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.718 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.784 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 15:00 on Wednesday 26 October 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Rapid Vienna 5 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 31% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 0.77x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
31%
3.23
31%
3.19
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.25
1.19
TSV Hartberg xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.62
13%
7.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.6 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.19 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 44 games, going 16W 12D 16L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 0.98 PPG from 44 outings (10W 13D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.36 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 0.98. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 9W 5D 8L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.27 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 16W 12D 16L in their last 44 games (1.36 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 10W 13D 21L in their last 44 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.45 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Rapid Vienna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
5
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 59%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Rapid Vienna) and 54% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Rapid Vienna's games and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Rapid Vienna and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 5-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 5-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.05 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 3.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 0.77 / defence 0.93 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 31% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 38%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Rapid Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 57%, TSV Hartberg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.36 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.