Rapid Vienna 1-3 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 35%, yet in-form Sturm Graz provide a compelling counter-argument — this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 2W 6D 2L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Rapid Vienna, 1 for Sturm Graz and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 56% versus Sturm Graz 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 48% | Sturm Graz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG and Sturm Graz 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.083 / defence 1.017 | Sturm Graz attack 1.161 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Rapid Vienna games / 44 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 35% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Sturm Graz 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 60% | Sturm Graz 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 35% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.20 / Sturm Graz 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.083 / def 1.017 | Sturm Graz attack 1.161 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sturm Graz xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 3 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Record (1 meetings): Rapid Vienna 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 1W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.08x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.16x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
35%
2.87
30%
3.29
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.40
1.20
Sturm Graz xG
2.87
35%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.31
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.48
10%
9.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.20 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 21W 18D 20L from 59 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 37W 13D 9L across 59 games — 2.10 PPG, with W-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 10W 11D 8L from 29 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 16W 9D 4L across 29 trips, a 1.97 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.75 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 18D 20L in their last 59 games (1.37 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 37W 13D 9L in their last 59 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.41 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 62%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Rapid Vienna) and 48% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Rapid Vienna's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 48% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Rapid Vienna 1-3 at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.20 xG and Sturm Graz 1.20 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.20 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 1.02 against Sturm Graz attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 35% | Draw 30% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 48%, Sturm Graz 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.37. That form edge translated into the three points. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.