Rapid Vienna 2-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 22 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Stadion.
Austria Vienna (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Vienna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Rapid Vienna, 0 for Austria Vienna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Rapid Vienna winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 42% versus Austria Vienna 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 37% | Austria Vienna 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG and Austria Vienna 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.142 / defence 0.871 | Austria Vienna attack 0.901 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.199. Data: 28 Rapid Vienna games / 27 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 53% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 20%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 5.00. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.60 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 40% | Austria Vienna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 53% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 50% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.66 / Austria Vienna 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.142 / def 0.871 | Austria Vienna attack 0.901 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Austria Vienna xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 22 September 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna 2 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 53% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
Record (2 meetings): Rapid Vienna 1W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 0W.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.14x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.90x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
53%
1.88
27%
3.75
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.60
0.94
Austria Vienna xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
19%
5.23
Win to Nil
21%
4.83
4%
25.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.94 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 14D 10L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.58 PPG from 38 outings (16W 12D 10L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.58 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 7W 7D 5L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.18 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Austria Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 14D 10L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 12D 10L in their last 38 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.47 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 47%, Austria Vienna 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rapid Vienna) and 37% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 47% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 37% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Rapid Vienna edge out Austria Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.66 xG and Austria Vienna 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.14 / defence 0.87 against Austria Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 0.90, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 53% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 20%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 37%, Austria Vienna 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.47 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.