Lask Linz 1-3 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Lask Linz are significantly better at Raiffeisen Arena than their overall form suggests.
TSV Hartberg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Lask Linz, 0.90 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 53% versus TSV Hartberg 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 40% | TSV Hartberg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.23 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.879 / defence 0.956 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.106 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | TSV Hartberg 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 30% | TSV Hartberg 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 5 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Lask Linz 1.23 / TSV Hartberg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.879 / def 0.956 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.106 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz 1 - 3 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Championship Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 39% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 0.88x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (1.11x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.23
30%
3.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.30
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.28
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
13%
7.57
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.7 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.2 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.07 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Lask Linz come into this having played 58 games, going 25W 21D 12L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.17 PPG from 58 outings (18W 14D 26L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lask Linz carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Lask Linz's home form reads 17W 6D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.97 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.07 points per game from 29 outings (8W 7D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.31 scored and 1.67 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 25W 21D 12L in their last 58 games (1.66 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 14D 26L in their last 58 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.97 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 1W 4D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
5
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 52%, TSV Hartberg 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 62% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 55% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Lask Linz's matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Lask Linz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Lask Linz 1-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.23 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.88 / defence 0.96 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.11 / defence 1.05, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 39% | Draw 31% | TSV Hartberg 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 40%, TSV Hartberg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.17. Form was overturned, with TSV Hartberg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.