Lask Linz 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Lask Linz take on Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 19). Kick-off is Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Rapid Vienna stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Rapid Vienna away from home: 2W 6D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.50 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Lask Linz's games and 60% of Rapid Vienna's (from Lask Linz's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Lask Linz have won 1, Rapid Vienna 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Sep 2024, ended Lask Linz 1–1 Rapid Vienna — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna trading profile (last 50 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 52% versus Rapid Vienna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 48% | Rapid Vienna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.21 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.901 / defence 1.082 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.934 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.431 / away 1.197. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 40 games and Rapid Vienna's last 40.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 33% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.07 | Draw 2.88 | Rapid Vienna 3.06. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 70% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 19 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 February 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 33% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Lask Linz 1.21 / Rapid Vienna 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.901 / def 1.082 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.934 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.431 / away 1.197 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 19) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 33% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 40 games and Rapid Vienna's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.07
35%
2.88
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.42
1.21
Rapid Vienna xG
3.07
33%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
30%
3.35
Win to Nil
10%
10.28
10%
10.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.9 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.21 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 20W 14D 16L record — W-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 18W 19D 13L from 50 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.48 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.56 PPG from their last 25 home games (11W 6D 8L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 8W 11D 6L from their last 25 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.38 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Rapid Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 games (1.48 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 18W 19D 13L in their last 50 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.56 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 5-0 Rapid Vienna.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
1
Draws
3
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lask Linz 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, Rapid Vienna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 32% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Rapid Vienna in 36%; Rapid Vienna in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 44% of Rapid Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 32% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 64% of Rapid Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.21 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.21 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.90 / defence 1.08 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 33% | Draw 35% | Rapid Vienna 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 48%, Rapid Vienna 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.48 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.